N-600 Final-Stage Wait Doubles in One Week, Outlier Flag Fires at 3.08 Sigma
The median wait for N-600 approvals jumped 63 days week over week, reaching 116 days against a 12-week average of 67 days. The sample of 163 cases sits below the 200-case reliability threshold, so readers should weigh the signal alongside that uncertainty.
The N-600 Certificate of Citizenship final-stage wait reached 116 days the week of September 7, up from 54 days the prior week, a 63-day move that triggered an outlier flag at z = 3.08 against the prior 4-week trailing mean. The 12-week trailing average for this form is 67 days; the same week last year came in at 97 days across only 27 cases. This week's sample of 163 cases falls below the 200-case reliability threshold, meaning a single batch of older or newer cases can move the median substantially. A second anomaly flag, rfe_fast, fired simultaneously, with RFE (Request for Evidence) response cases clearing faster than plain-processing cases, a counterintuitive pattern addressed below.
- The N-600 final-stage median rose 63 days week over week, from 54 days to 116 days, triggering an outlier flag at z = 3.08 against the prior 4-week trailing mean.
- The 116-day reading sits 19.3% above the same week last year (97 days, n = 27) and 73% above the 12-week trailing average of 67 days.
- Cases that received and responded to an RFE cleared in a 25-day median this week, compared with 73 days for cases without an RFE, a counterintuitive gap that fired the rfe_fast anomaly flag.
- The two largest stage-level time sinks are 'Case Was Received' (91-day median across 26,539 active cases) and 'USCIS Is Currently Processing' (115-day median across 15,456 cases).
- The active N-600 pending backlog of cases across all filing cohorts grew by 1,773 cases (+1.8%) over the 28 days ending September 14, 2026.
116 days, up from 54 in a week
The median wait for N-600 approvals rose from 54 days the week of August 31 to 116 days the week of September 7, a 63-day move. An outlier flag fired at z = 3.08 against the prior 4-week trailing mean, placing this week's reading well outside the recent run. Compared with the same week last year, the median is up 19.3% (97 days, n = 27 in 2025). The 12-week trailing average is 67 days. One important caution: this week's sample of 163 cases falls below the 200-case reliability threshold, which means the median can shift meaningfully based on which specific cases happened to be approved in this window.
A volatile series where 34-to-116 is the range
Over the last 12 weeks, N-600 final-stage medians ranged from 34 days (the week of June 29) to 116 days (this week), with no stable plateau in between. The underlying regression slope is +3.3 days per week, but the R² of 0.14 means that line accounts for very little of the actual week-to-week movement. The series is classified as noisy_stable: the direction is uncertain, and volatility is its defining feature rather than any consistent trend.
The RFE-fast puzzle: why flagged cases cleared quicker
N-600 cases that received and responded to an RFE (Request for Evidence, USCIS's standard follow-up letter asking for missing documents) posted a 25-day final-stage median this week, while cases that went through plain processing came in at 73 days. The rfe_fast anomaly flag fired with a value of 0.22. One possible reading is that the RFE-response pool this week consisted of cases that had been pending for an extended period before their responses were received, then moved quickly once the adjudication (USCIS's case decision step) resumed. Meanwhile, the no-RFE pool may have included cases with genuinely longer queues. The mechanism is not observable in the data, and a single week is not enough to confirm any explanation.
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