Approval Trends Brief
Issue 45Published Nov 2, 2026
Family Petition · Week 45
I-130 · Family petition

I-130 Total Wait Reaches 267 Days, Up 70 From Last Week and 92% Above Last Year

The week of Nov 2, 2026 produced the highest total wait median in the 12-week window, with an outlier flag at 4.45 standard deviations above the recent trend confirming this is a statistically unusual reading.

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The median time from filing to approval for I-130 petitions approved the week of Nov 2, 2026 rose to 267 days, up 70 days from last week's 197-day figure and 128 days above the same week a year ago (139 days, n=5,903), a year-over-year increase of 92%. An outlier flag fired at 4.45 standard deviations above the 8-week trailing trend, the strongest anomaly reading in the current series. Meanwhile, the pending backlog of I-130 cases stands at 781,887 as of Nov 9, up 28,565 from four weeks earlier. Every wait figure in this brief is measured only on cases that were approved; the pending cases have been waiting additional, uncounted time.

Key findings
  1. The median total wait for I-130 approvals reached 267 days the week of Nov 2, 2026, up 70 days from last week's 197 days and 92% above the same week a year ago (139 days).
  2. An outlier_week_high anomaly flag fired at 4.45 standard deviations above the 8-week trailing trend, the most statistically unusual reading in the 12-week window.
  3. The interquartile range (the 25th to 75th percentile spread) widened to 442 days this week (p25 (the 25th percentile) = 133, p75 = 575), compared with a 259-day spread in mid-August (p25 125, p75 384).
  4. RFE (Request for Evidence) cases cleared in a median of 19 days this week versus 53 days for cases without an RFE, an inverted pattern flagged as statistically unusual.
  5. The active backlog rose to 781,887 cases as of Nov 9, up 28,565 (3.8%) from Oct 12, suggesting structural pressure on medians beyond any single-week effect.
01 / I-130 · Week of Nov 2, 2026

267 days: a single-week surge that stands out statistically

267days
Median filing-to-approval wait for I-130 petitions approved the week of Nov 2, 2026. This is the total wait from the date USCIS received the case to its approval.Up 70 days from last week (197 days); up 128 days from the same week in 2025 (139 days, n=5,903).

Of the 3,938 I-130 petitions approved the week of Nov 2, 2026, filing date was known for 3,935. Their median filing-to-approval time was 267 days, 70 days above last week's 197-day figure and 128 days above the same week a year ago (139 days, n=5,903), a year-over-year increase of 92%. The distribution was wide: 42% of approvals this week involved cases that had waited more than a year from filing.

The pending backlog of I-130 cases, meaning cases filed across all months that have not yet been adjudicated (the case decision step where USCIS issues an approval, denial, or request for more information), stood at 781,887 active cases as of Nov 9, up 28,565 (3.8%) from 753,322 four weeks earlier. Every wait figure in this brief is measured only on cases already approved this week. The 781,887 pending cases have been waiting for additional, uncounted time and are not reflected in the medians.

Figure 1
The 12-week trend in time from last status update to approval shows a contained band through most of September and October before the sharp rise at W45.
Median days from last reported status to approval, with the p25 to p75 band.
1401401201201001008080606040402020DaysAug 17Aug 17Aug 24Aug 24Aug 31Aug 31Sep 7Sep 7Sep 14Sep 14Sep 21Sep 21Sep 28Sep 28Oct 5Oct 5Oct 12Oct 12Oct 19Oct 19Oct 26Oct 26Nov 2Nov 2Forecast
p25 to p75
Weekly median
Forecast
Last year
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. Aug 17 – Nov 2, 2026. n = 3,427 to 5,560 per week.
02

Two months of stability, then a jump

Looking at the 12-week total wait series, the median had stayed in a band of 185 to 222 days from mid-August through the week of Oct 26, 2026. The widest week-to-week move in that span was 29 days (from 185 days the week of Oct 19 to 197 days the week of Oct 26). This week's 267-day reading is 70 days above last week and 45 days above the top of that prior two-month range.

The interquartile range (IQR, the spread between the 25th percentile, or p25, and the 75th percentile, or p75) widened considerably this week. The p25 sits at 133 days and the p75 at 575 days, a gap of 442 days. By comparison, the week of Aug 17 had a p25 of 125 days and a p75 of 384 days, a gap of 259 days. The p90 this week reached 675 days. The widening distribution indicates that a substantial share of approvals this week came from very long-pending cases, which pulled the median upward.

03

What the 4.45σ flag means, and what it does not

An outlier_week_high anomaly flag fired this week with a value of 4.45. The flag compares this week's reading against an 8-week trailing trend: a result of 4.45 standard deviations above that trend is statistically rare within the recent series. The final-stage metric, that is the time from the last status update to approval (a secondary metric, not the total filing-to-approval wait), also rose sharply this week, from 60 days last week to 108 days, against a 12-week trailing average of 52 days.

A single-week outlier at this magnitude can arise when a large batch of long-pending cases is processed together, which would push the median up for one week before the reading reverts toward the trend. The 8-week slope for the final-stage metric is +6.9 days per week, with an R² of 0.51, indicating a real upward direction over the past two months, but the R² is not strong enough to rule out noise in any individual week. This week's figure should not be read in isolation.

When long-pending cases clear in a concentrated week, the median rises sharply and can fall back just as quickly; one number does not confirm the direction alone.
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About this brief

Approval Trends Brief is a weekly data report from the MyCasesHub Data Team. It uses live USCIS case status updates from millions of cases tracked through MyCasesHub. Briefs are issued every Monday and revised whenever a material trend change is detected.

Methodology and resources

  • Source: USCIS case status updates collected through MyCasesHub user activity.
  • Approval marker: first occurrence of approval, card produced, or oath ceremony status.
  • Total wait (headline figure when at least 100 approvals that week, and at least half of them, have a known filing date): days from the date USCIS received the case to that marker. When the received date is not shown, it is estimated from neighbouring receipt numbers.
  • Final-stage wait (trend charts): days from a case's last status update before approval to that marker. It is shorter than the total wait.
  • All waits are measured on approved cases. USCIS's published processing time counts the time within which 80% of a category's cases were completed, so it is not the same statistic.
  • Outlier rule: final-stage waits above 1,095 days and total waits above 3,650 days are excluded.
  • Sample size threshold: cohorts with fewer than 100 cases are flagged as low confidence.
  • How we compute these numbers·I-130 only