N-600 Median Jumps 17 Days, But the Eight-Week Downtrend Holds
The week of July 20 brought a statistically flagged one-week rise to 86 days, even as the broader trend still points sharply downward. RFE-stamped cases cleared unusually fast this week, adding a second, opposing signal.
N-600 Certificate of Citizenship applications posted a median final-stage wait of 86 days the week of July 20, up 17 days from 69 days the prior week, a jump the anomaly detector rated at z = 2.40 against the prior 4-week trailing window. Yet the 8-week slope remains -8.9 days per week, meaning the underlying direction of travel is still downward. The 86-day reading sits just 4 days above the 12-week trailing average of 82 days, placing it near the middle of recent history rather than at a new high. Both signals are real; neither one alone tells the full story.
- The N-600 final-stage median rose 17 days week over week, from 69 days to 86 days, with an outlier flag at z = 2.40 against the prior 4-week trailing mean.
- The 8-week slope of -8.9 days per week shows a genuine improving trend, though R² = 0.33 means week-to-week swings of 20 to 30 days are well within normal variance for this form.
- Cases with an RFE (Request for Evidence) response resolved at a median of 28 days, versus 97 days for cases without one, a 3.43x speed ratio flagged as anomalously fast.
- The active pending backlog grew by 4,520 cases (+154.8%) over the past 81 days, driven primarily by cases filed in May 2026 (1,561 active cases), providing context for the volatile weekly readings.
- The 4-week forecast carries a wide confidence band of ~17 to 117 days by the week of August 17, reflecting R² = 0.33; the range-required precision means no single projected median is reliable.
A spike that the trend context complicates
The N-600 median for the week of July 20 came in at 86 days, a 17-day rise from 69 days the week before, a gain of 24.3%. The anomaly detector fired an outlier flag at z = 2.40, computed against the prior 4-week trailing mean, placing this week's reading well above the recent short-term run. At the same time, 86 days lands only 4 days above the 12-week trailing average of 82 days, so against the fuller horizon this is a return toward the recent middle, not a breakout to new highs.
Eight weeks of acceleration, interrupted
The 8-week regression slope for N-600 stands at -8.9 days per week, which, taken over the full 8-week window, represents roughly 71 days of cumulative improvement in direction. The R² of 0.33 is worth naming plainly: the trend direction is real, but the fit is loose. Week-to-week swings of 20 to 30 days are within normal variance for this form, and a single week's reading should be interpreted with that spread in mind.
The 12-week table anchors the picture. The median ran from a peak of 146 days at the week of June 1 down to 34 days at the week of June 29, a 112-day fall in roughly a month. The 34-day trough was itself anomalously low for this form. The current 86-day reading may reflect a normalization after that low rather than a fresh deterioration. The path from 146 to 86 days, with a dip to 34 in between, describes a noisy but downward-slanting channel, not a reversal.
The direction of travel is downward, but the path is not a straight line.
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