Early-read N-600 median lands on trend, but RFE cases clear four times faster than plain processing
Week 22 data is preliminary, drawn from 199 cases. The flat 12-week trend masks a sharp RFE speed inversion and a fast-growing active backlog.
This week's N-600 preliminary median of 83 days sits almost exactly on the 12-week trailing average of 84 days, suggesting the overall trend is stable, but two countercurrents complicate that reading. Cases that received and responded to an RFE (Request for Evidence) cleared in just 24 days, versus 95 days for plain-processed cases, a 4-to-1 gap that triggered the rfe_fast anomaly flag. At the same time, the total active pending backlog of N-600 cases grew 18.2% in 18 days. The week is quiet on the surface and more complicated underneath.
- This week's preliminary median of 83 days (199 cases) is nearly identical to the 12-week trailing average of 84 days, with the 8-week slope at -0.4 days per week and an R² of 0.01, consistent with a flat, noisy trend.
- RFE-stamped cases cleared in a median 24 days this week versus 95 days for plain-processed cases, a 4x inversion that triggered the rfe_fast anomaly flag.
- The two largest pending stages hold nearly three-quarters of observed cases: 41.7% at 'Case Was Received' (median 97-day wait) and 31.8% at 'Case Is Still Being Processed' (median 84 days).
- The total active backlog grew 18.2% in 18 days, adding 1,120 pending cases, with the April 2026 filing-month group accounting for 542 of that growth.
- The January 2026 filing-month group is only 7.8% approved at 20 weeks old; December 2025, five weeks older, sits at 7.7% approved, reflecting a measured clearance pace across recent filers.
A flat line with noise underneath it
This week's sample is an early signal: 199 cases approved, roughly 50% to 70% of the prior 12-week pace, so the numbers carry more uncertainty than a full-strength week. With that in mind, the final-stage wait median came in at 83 days, up 21 days from last week's 61-day reading. That single-week swing looks large, but the 12-week trailing average is 84 days, meaning this week lands almost exactly on trend. The surface-level jump reflects normal week-to-week variability in a low-volume sample, not a directional shift.
The 8-week regression slope is -0.4 days per week, and the R² is 0.01, meaning the regression explains essentially none of the week-to-week variation. Medians have ranged from 61 to 108 days over the last 12 weeks, with no reliable upward or downward drift. The pattern is best described as noisy and stable: the process is neither accelerating nor decelerating, and any given week's reading may fall anywhere in that 47-day historical window.
The cases that moved fastest had extra paperwork
The rfe_fast anomaly flag fired this week, and the underlying numbers explain why. Cases that received and responded to an RFE (Request for Evidence, USCIS's standard follow-up letter asking for missing documents) posted a median final-stage wait of 24 days. Cases that went through plain processing, with no RFE, took 95 days. That is a 4-to-1 ratio in favor of the RFE path, the opposite of the typical relationship. Receiving an RFE does not by itself signal denial; most cases that receive one are still approved. The inversion this week likely reflects a prior batch of RFE responses clearing together rather than any sustained policy change.
4.03x RFE response cases clear faster than the plain processing cohort.
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