Approval Trends Brief
Issue 38Published Sep 14, 2026
Naturalization · Week 38
N-400 · Naturalization

N-400 Final-Stage Wait Falls 14 Days, but the Underlying Drift Persists

This week's median of 47 days is 30% below the same week last year, yet the 8-week regression line is still pointing upward at roughly 2.6 days per week.

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The N-400 final-stage wait dropped 14 days in a single week, falling from 61 to 47 days, a move of -23.6%. That brings the median 30% below the same week in 2025, when the figure stood at 67 days across a much larger sample of 5,337 approvals. The complication is that the 8-week regression slope is still +2.6 days per week, and this week's reading is not an all-time low for the series: the 12-week window has already seen readings of 31 days (Aug 3) and 34 days (Aug 10). Both signals are real, and neither cancels the other.

Key findings
  1. The N-400 final-stage median fell to 47 days this week, down 14 days from 61 days the prior week (-23.6%).
  2. The same-week comparison shows a 30% improvement year over year: 47 days this week vs. 67 days in the same week of 2025 (n=5,337).
  3. The 8-week regression slope is +2.6 days per week (R²=0.38), meaning the underlying trend is still drifting upward despite this week's pullback.
  4. RFE (Request for Evidence) cases closed in a median of 36 days this week, 10 days faster than plain-processing cases at 46 days, an inversion of the typical pattern.
  5. The April 2026 filing-month group is only 2.4% approved (372 of 15,645 cases) at 24 weeks of age, illustrating how far most active N-400 cases are from the finish line.
01

A sharp one-week improvement, with caveats

47days
The N-400 final-stage wait this week, down 14 days from last week's 61-day reading.Same week last year: 67 days (n=5,337). Three-year same-week average: 67 days.

The median final-stage wait for N-400 approvals fell from 61 days to 47 days week over week, a drop of 14 days (-23.6%). Across the trailing 12 weeks, the series has ranged from 31 days to 61 days, and the 12-week trailing average sits at 45 days, so this week's reading is near the middle of that range rather than at a new low. The sample of 851 cases is solid, though it is below several prior weeks in the window (the week of Aug 31 drew 1,054 cases, and the week of Jul 6 drew 943).

Figure 1
The 12-week trend shows the final-stage median climbing from 31 days in early August to 61 days by September 7, then pulling back to 47 days this week, with wide week-to-week variation throughout.
Median days from last reported status to approval, with the p25 to p75 band.
90908080707060605050404030302020DaysJun 29Jun 29Jul 6Jul 6Jul 13Jul 13Jul 20Jul 20Jul 27Jul 27Aug 3Aug 3Aug 10Aug 10Aug 17Aug 17Aug 24Aug 24Aug 31Aug 31Sep 7Sep 7Sep 14Sep 14Forecast
p25 to p75
Weekly median
Forecast
Last year
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W27 to 2026-W38. n = 851 (this week).

Compared with the same week in 2025, when the final-stage median was 67 days, this week's 47-day reading represents a 30% improvement. The three-year same-week average also sits at 67 days, meaning current medians are running well below recent historical norms. That said, year-over-year comparisons on final-stage wait reflect who happened to be approved each week, not necessarily a structural change in how quickly USCIS moves new applications through the pipeline.

02 / N-400 · 8-week trajectory

The drift that preceded this week's drop

Before this week's pullback, the median climbed from 31 days on Aug 3 to 61 days on Sep 7, a 30-day rise over five weeks. The 8-week regression slope of +2.6 days per week points upward, but the fit is loose: R² is 0.38, meaning roughly 62% of the week-to-week variance is not explained by the linear trend. That loose fit is also why this week's reversal is plausible within the trend rather than a clean break from it. The interquartile range (the spread between the 25th percentile, p25, and the 75th percentile, p75) widened to a p75 of 80 days in the week of Aug 17, then pulled back to 75 days this week, a sign of continued variability rather than a settled direction.

One week below the regression line is real relief, but it does not yet change the direction the line is pointing.

All 851 approvals this week flowed through IOE, the electronic-filing channel. There is no center-to-center split to examine: the slope for IOE mirrors the national slope exactly, at +2.6 days per week, because IOE is the only pathway in use for this form.

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About this brief

Approval Trends Brief is a weekly data report from the MyCasesHub Data Team. It uses live USCIS case status updates from millions of cases tracked through MyCasesHub. Briefs are issued every Monday and revised whenever a material trend change is detected.

Methodology and resources

  • Source: USCIS case status updates collected through MyCasesHub user activity.
  • Approval marker: first occurrence of approval, card produced, or oath ceremony status.
  • Days to approval: time from a case's last non-approval status update to that marker.
  • Outlier rule: cases with a measured wait above 1,095 days are excluded.
  • Sample size threshold: cohorts with fewer than 100 cases are flagged as low confidence.
  • How we compute these numbers·N-400 only