Approval Trends Brief
Issue 34Published Aug 17, 2026
Naturalization · Week 34
N-400 · Naturalization

N-400 Final-Stage Waits Edge Below Last Year With Modest Improvement Trend

This week's 39-day median sits 2 days below the same week in 2025 and just under the 12-week trailing average, with no anomaly flags and a forecast pointing toward further gradual improvement through mid-September.

The N-400 naturalization final-stage wait came in at 39 days the week of August 17, ticking up 4 days from last week but remaining 2 days below the same week last year (41 days) and 1 day below the 12-week trailing average of 40 days. No anomaly flags fired. The 8-week slope of -1.5 days per week points modestly faster, and the 4-week forecast projects a range of approximately 21 to 49 days through mid-September, though the underlying regression's R² of 0.30 means that band carries real uncertainty. For the roughly 295,000 cases still pending, the directional signal is gently encouraging.

Key findings
  1. This week's 39-day final-stage median is 2 days below the same week last year (41 days) and 1 day below the 12-week trailing average of 40 days.
  2. The 8-week slope of -1.5 days per week points toward gradual improvement, though an R² of 0.30 limits confidence in the projection.
  3. Cases that received an RFE (Request for Evidence) cleared in a median of 33 days this week, compared with 41 days for cases without one, a difference that reflects cohort (a group of cases) composition rather than any benefit of receiving an RFE.
  4. The March 2026 filing-month group (25 weeks old) has seen 2.8% of its cases approved to date, consistent with how slowly N-400 adjudication (USCIS's decision step) proceeds for recent filers.
  5. The total active pending backlog stands at roughly 294,754 cases, up about 2,800 (1.0%) over the prior 28 days.
01 / N-400 · Final-stage wait

39 days, a hair below last year

39days
The final-stage wait for N-400 naturalization cases approved this week landed at 39 days, 2 days below the same week last year and near the 12-week trailing average of 40 days.Up 4 days from last week (35 days); down 2 days year over year (41 days, n = 2,702).

Of the 898 N-400 cases approved in the week of August 17, the median final-stage wait (the time from a case's last reported status to approval) was 39 days. That is 4 days above last week's 35-day reading, a move that might prompt concern on its own. In context, however, the current number sits 2 days below the same week in 2025 (41 days) and 1 day below the 12-week trailing average of 40 days. No anomaly flags fired this week, meaning the uptick falls within the normal scatter of the recent trend.

Figure 1
The 12-week trend shows the final-stage wait rising from a June low to a late-July peak before pulling back toward the current 39-day reading.
Median days from last reported status to approval, with the p25 to p75 band.
90908080707060605050404030302020DaysJun 1Jun 1Jun 8Jun 8Jun 15Jun 15Jun 22Jun 22Jun 29Jun 29Jul 6Jul 6Jul 13Jul 13Jul 20Jul 20Jul 27Jul 27Aug 3Aug 3Aug 10Aug 10Aug 17Aug 17Forecast
p25 to p75
Weekly median
Forecast
Last year
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-06-01 to 2026-08-17. n = 898 (this week).
02

A summer arc: up to 50, now settling back

The 12-week trend tells a recognizable mid-year story. The week of June 1, the final-stage median opened at 28 days, then climbed steadily through July, reaching 50 days in the week of July 20. From there it pulled back to 31 days by early August before ticking up to the current 39 days. That full arc, 28 to 50 and back toward the mid-30s, is more a seasonal pattern than a policy signal. The 8-week regression slope of -1.5 days per week points modestly faster, consistent with the post-peak pullback, though an R² of 0.30 means the direction is suggestive rather than firm. Placing the current reading against the 3-year same-week average of 41 days offers additional reassurance: this week is 2 days below that benchmark.

At 39 days, this week's reading is below both last year's 41 days and the 3-year same-week average, landing the mid-summer arc in calmer territory than the peak suggested.
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About this brief

Approval Trends Brief is a weekly data report from the MyCasesHub Data Team. It uses live USCIS case status updates from millions of cases tracked through MyCasesHub. Briefs are issued every Monday and revised whenever a material trend change is detected.

Methodology and resources

  • Source: USCIS case status updates collected through MyCasesHub user activity.
  • Approval marker: first occurrence of approval, card produced, or oath ceremony status.
  • Days to approval: time from a case's last non-approval status update to that marker.
  • Outlier rule: cases with a measured wait above 1,095 days are excluded.
  • Sample size threshold: cohorts with fewer than 100 cases are flagged as low confidence.
  • How we compute these numbers·N-400 only