Approval Trends Brief
Issue 21Published May 25, 2026
Naturalization · Week 21
N-400 · Naturalization

N-400 Final-Stage Waits Keep Falling, But This Week Snapped Back 6 Days

The week of May 18 produced a 22-day median, up from 16 days the prior week, a short-term uptick against a two-month improvement trend that has cut waits from the high-30s to the low-teens.

N-400 naturalization final-stage waits have compressed sharply since March, falling from a 12-week trailing average of 33 days to a low of 13 days in the week of May 4. This week, however, the median rose to 22 days, a 6-day gain (+37.3%) over last week's 16-day reading. The 8-week slope of -3.5 days per week (R² = 0.63) remains a moderately confident downward trend, and a single week's move does not reverse it. Both signals are worth naming: the structural improvement is real, and so is the week-over-week uptick.

Key findings
  1. The N-400 final-stage median rose to 22 days this week, up 6 days (+37.3%) from 16 days last week, interrupting a streak of low-teens readings in W19 and W20.
  2. The 8-week trend remains clearly improving: slope of -3.5 days per week (R² = 0.63), with medians falling from the high-30s in March to the low-20s now.
  3. Cases with an RFE (Request for Evidence) and those without cleared at nearly the same final-stage pace this week: 30 days vs. 33 days, a 1.10x ratio.
  4. The January 2026 filing-month group is only 2.1% cleared at age 20 weeks, and the active pending backlog grew 17.8% in 18 days to 63,632 cases.
  5. The 4-week forecast, given an R² of 0.63, carries wide bands: the week of May 25 projects at ~8 to 29 days, narrowing to ~7 to 18 days by mid-June if the trend holds.
01

A sharp two-month drop, then a bump

Through the first 17 weeks of 2026, N-400 final-stage waits held in the high-30s, rarely moving more than 3 days in either direction. Then, in the week of May 4, the median fell to 13 days, and last week it came in at 16 days. This week the number moved the other way: 22 days, a 6-day gain that stands against a 12-week trailing average of 33 days. That trailing average is the benchmark for how far the recent run has come, not a ceiling the current reading is in danger of breaching.

22days
Final-stage median this week, the time from last reported status to approval for N-400 naturalization cases approved in W21.Up 6 days from 16 days last week; down from a 12-week trailing average of 33 days.
Figure 1
The 12-week trend shows final-stage medians holding near 38 days through W17, then falling sharply to 13 days in W19 before this week's partial reversal to 22 days.
Median days from last reported status to approval, with the p25 to p75 band.
60605050404030302020101000DaysMar 2Mar 2Mar 9Mar 9Mar 16Mar 16Mar 23Mar 23Mar 30Mar 30Apr 6Apr 6Apr 13Apr 13Apr 20Apr 20Apr 27Apr 27May 4May 4May 11May 11May 18May 18Forecast
p25 to p75
Weekly median
Forecast
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W10 to 2026-W21. n = 1,034 (this week).

The 8-week regression slope of -3.5 days per week carries an R² of 0.63, which places this trend in the moderate-to-strong range: the direction is credible, though week-to-week noise is visible. A single week's +37.3% move is large in percentage terms but, against a trend of this slope, does not signal a reversal on its own. The data does not tell us why this week's reading came in higher; it may reflect which field offices happened to schedule oath ceremony and interview waves during the week, or it may reflect ordinary sampling variation at a weekly sample of 1,034 cases.

02

Where the queue is moving, and where it is not

The final-stage median captures only the last leg of the N-400 process. The bulk of pending cases sit much earlier. In the Stage durations (30-day window) data, the 'Case Is Still Being Processed By USCIS' status holds 37.8% of observed cases at a median of 144 days (25th percentile, p25, of 102 days and 75th percentile, p75, of 179 days, across 284,091 cases). The 'Interview Was Scheduled' status holds another 23.3% at a median of 50 days (p25 37 days, p75 74 days, across 174,833 cases). Together these two stages absorb more than 60% of the active queue. By contrast, the oath-ceremony stages combined account for roughly 19% of cases and show medians of 18 to 30 days, where movement is considerably faster.

Figure 2
The processing and interview stages dominate the pipeline, each carrying far longer median waits than the final oath-ceremony and approval steps.
Weighted-average weekly p25 / p50 / p75 of the final-stage wait, last 12 weeks. Spread reflects week-to-week stability, not raw case distribution.
Last status before approval
Cases
Distribution (days)
Median
interview
9,726
p25 38 · p75 50
42 d
processing
4,246
p25 9 · p75 26
15 d
rfe_response
658
p25 13 · p75 73
31 d
rfe
206
p25 15 · p75 42
28 d
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W10 to 2026-W21. n = 9,726 (interview), 4,246 (processing), 658 (rfe_response), 206 (rfe).

One status worth noting is 'Oath Ceremony Cancelled': across 6,609 cases in the last 30 days, the median wait at that stage is 101 days (p25 68 days, p75 133 days). For applicants who missed a scheduled oath ceremony, the wait to reschedule is itself a material share of the total timeline. This is a small fraction of overall volume (0.9% of observed cases), and the data does not indicate whether the cancellations are applicant-initiated or office-initiated.

The final stage cleared in 22 days this week; cases still waiting at the processing stage have sat there a median of 144 days.
03

RFE or not, the pace is nearly the same

Cases that received an RFE (Request for Evidence, USCIS's standard follow-up letter asking for missing documents) posted a final-stage median of 30 days this week. Cases without an RFE posted 33 days. The speed ratio of 1.10x means the gap is minimal. This is worth noting because RFE'd cases typically carry a longer total wait: the RFE adds weeks or months earlier in the process while the applicant gathers and submits documentation. The final-stage metric here measures only the time from the last status update to approval, not the full filing-to-approval span. RFE'd cases still carry that earlier accumulated time, even if the final leg looks similar this week. The data brief does not tell us why the two groups are converging at the final stage right now.

Figure 3
RFE-stamped and non-RFE cases clear at a similar pace this week, with medians of 30 and 33 days respectively.
Median days from last reported status to approval, by RFE-stamped vs non-RFE cohort, this week.
RFE response ·
30days median
Plain processing ·
33days median

1.10x RFE and plain processing cohorts clear at a similar pace.

Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W21. n = 1,034.
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About this brief

Approval Trends Brief is a weekly data report from the MyCasesHub Data Team. It uses live USCIS case status updates from millions of cases tracked through MyCasesHub. Briefs are issued every Monday and revised whenever a material trend change is detected.

Methodology and resources

  • Source: USCIS case status updates collected through MyCasesHub user activity.
  • Approval marker: first occurrence of approval, card produced, or oath ceremony status.
  • Days to approval: time from a case's last non-approval status update to that marker.
  • Outlier rule: cases with a measured wait above 1,095 days are excluded.
  • Sample size threshold: cohorts with fewer than 100 cases are flagged as low confidence.
  • How we compute these numbers·N-400 only