Preliminary N-400 Median Falls to 14 Days, But Pending Cohorts Remain Nearly Frozen
An early read for the week of May 4 puts the final-stage wait at its lowest in 12 weeks, yet filing-month groups from late 2025 and early 2026 show approval rates below 2%, and the active pending count grew 8% in six days.
The N-400 naturalization final-stage median dropped to 14 days this week, down 23 days from last week's 37 and well below the 12-week trailing average of 36 days. The outlier-low anomaly detector fired at z = -35.94 against the prior 4-week trailing mean, the strongest single-week departure in the 12-week series. At a preliminary sample of 869 cases (roughly 50% to 70% of the typical weekly volume), this week's reading may reflect which cases happened to clear rather than a broad system acceleration. Filing-month groups filed between December 2025 and February 2026 show approval rates of only 1.5% to 1.8%, and the active pending count rose by 4,124 cases in six days. The weekly signal and the cohort (a group of cases) picture point in opposite directions.
- The preliminary N-400 final-stage median fell to 14 days this week, down from 37 days last week and the lowest reading in the 12-week window.
- The outlier-low anomaly flag fired at z = -35.94 against the prior 4-week trailing mean, the most extreme single-week departure in the tracked series.
- Filing-month groups from January and February 2026 each show only 1.5% of cases approved at ages 18 and 14 weeks respectively, consistent with N-400 timelines that typically run 6 to 16 months.
- The active pending backlog grew 8.0% (4,124 cases) in six days, with the April 2026 filing-month group accounting for 1,966 of that increase.
- Cases that received an RFE (Request for Evidence) posted a 32-day median this week, 5 days faster than the 37-day non-RFE median, an unusual reversal that may reflect a batch of older RFE-response cases clearing simultaneously.
An early read, not a breakthrough
The N-400 final-stage median (the time from a case's last reported status to approval) came in at 14 days for the week of May 4, down from 37 days the prior week and sharply below the 12-week trailing average of 36 days. The outlier-low anomaly detector fired at z = -35.94 against the prior 4-week trailing mean, the single largest downward departure in the 12-week window. This week's 53-day reading would be well within the typical scatter range, but 14 days sits far below it. The sample stands at 869 cases, at the preliminary threshold of 50% to 70% of the prior 12-week median volume, meaning the figure could shift as more approvals are recorded.
What the cohort data says instead
The filing-month cohort burndown tracks what fraction of cases filed in a given calendar month have been approved as of the current snapshot. This is a distinct, forward-looking measure from the weekly final-stage median, which captures only cases that happened to receive an approval stamp in a particular week. The February 2026 filing-month group (14 weeks old as of this snapshot) shows just 1.5% of its 12,059 cases approved. The January 2026 group (18 weeks old) is also at 1.5% of 11,582 cases. The December 2025 group at 22 weeks stands at 1.8% of 14,257 cases. These rates are low relative to the typical N-400 adjudication (the USCIS case decision step) timeline of 6 to 16 months, which suggests the overwhelming share of pending cases is not near clearance yet.
The active pending count across all tracked filing-month groups grew to 55,857 cases, up 4,124 cases (8.0%) over the six days from May 4 to May 10. The April 2026 filing-month group accounted for 1,966 of that increase, consistent with new filings entering the queue. A rising pending count alongside a falling weekly median may reflect faster-clearing, older cases cycling through while the larger pending mass continues to accumulate. The data brief does not tell us why the two signals diverge; the contrast is real but the mechanism is not yet visible in the weekly data.
Where cases are waiting right now
Looking at where N-400 cases currently sit, the two largest groups are at the interview and general processing stages. Cases at 'Interview Was Scheduled' represent 27.6% of the pipeline (171,413 cases), with a median of 50 days at that status, a 25th percentile (p25) of 38 days, and a 75th percentile (p75) of 74 days, based on raw case-level distributions from the 30-day stage-durations window. The 'Case Is Still Being Processed By USCIS' stage holds another 27.1% of cases (168,244 cases), with a median of 144 days (p25: 88 days, p75: 185 days). Together these two stages account for more than half of all tracked pending cases, and the processing stage's 144-day median is the longest single-stage wait in the pipeline.
Beyond the two largest stages, the three oath ceremony statuses together hold about 22% of cases. The 'Oath Ceremony Notice Was Mailed' group shows a median of 18 days across 87,676 cases, while 'Oath Ceremony Will Be Scheduled' carries a median of 31 days across 51,996 cases. Cases at 'Interview Cancelled' (13,464 cases, or 2.2% of the total) carry a median of 72 days at that status, and 'Oath Ceremony Cancelled' (6,483 cases, 1.0%) shows a median of 102 days. These are smaller fractions of the overall pipeline but represent meaningful waits for the applicants in them.
The single longest wait in the N-400 pipeline sits at 'Case Is Still Being Processed By USCIS,' where the typical case spends 144 days.
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