I-90 Final-Stage Waits Are Half of Last Year's, but Creeping Back Up
The median final-stage wait for I-90 green card renewals hit 68 days in Week 37, down 49.3% from 135 days a year ago. An 8-week upward slope and a wide forecast band for autumn mean the improvement warrants continued watching.
I-90 green card renewal cases cleared in a median of 68 days in the week of September 7, 2026, down from 135 days in the same week of 2025, a 49.3% year-over-year drop across 5,304 approved cases. The 12-week trailing average sits at 49 days, reflecting how low medians ran through June and July. The reassuring picture carries a counterweight: the 8-week slope is +4.3 days per week, meaning the median has been climbing since a low of 15 days in late June. Whether that drift continues, flattens, or reverses is unclear from the current data.
- The I-90 final-stage median was 68 days in W37 2026, down 49.3% from 135 days in the same week a year ago (n = 1,991 then vs. 5,304 now).
- The 8-week slope is +4.3 days per week with R² = 0.29, indicating an upward drift that is real but noisy.
- An rfe_fast anomaly fired this week: cases that received and responded to a Request for Evidence (RFE) cleared in a median of 21 days, compared to 41 days for cases without an RFE.
- The overall active backlog of pending I-90 cases fell by 5,823 cases (7.6%) over the past 28 days, with the May 2026 filing-month group now 50.6% approved at 19 weeks.
- If the 8-week trend continues, the mechanical forecast for the week of Oct 5 projects a range of ~50 to 121 days, a wide band reflecting R² = 0.29.
Half the wait it was a year ago — but creeping back up
The median final-stage wait for I-90 cases approved in the week of September 7 was 68 days, compared to 135 days in the same week of 2025. That 49.3% year-over-year drop is the dominant signal for applicants watching the pipeline. The 12-week trailing average of 49 days offers additional context: medians ran as low as 15 days in late June before climbing through summer. This week's reading is up modestly from 67 days last week, continuing a pattern of gradual increase since the June trough.
The 8-week slope of +4.3 days per week means the median has added roughly 34 days since late June. However, R² of 0.29 indicates the fit is noisy: the 104-day reading in W34 (week of August 17) shows how much individual weeks can diverge from the trend line. The direction appears upward, but the week-to-week scatter is wide enough that no single week should be read as a turning point.
A shrinking backlog, but many cases still in mid-flight
The overall active backlog of pending I-90 cases across all filing-month groups fell by 5,823 cases, a 7.6% drop, over the 28-day window from August 17 to September 14, 2026. Within the recent filing-month groups tracked in the cohort (a group of cases) data, cases filed in May 2026 are 50.6% approved at 19 weeks of age, while the April 2026 group is 53.7% approved at 23 weeks. The pipeline is clearing steadily, but a large share of cases in both groups remains active.
Cases filed in July 2026 are 39.9% approved at 10 weeks, while cases filed in June 2026 are 43.5% approved at 15 weeks. That 3.6 percentage-point step-up over five additional weeks is modest compared to the pace the April and May groups showed at similar ages. Whether the June and July groups catch up in coming weeks, or settle into a slower clearance curve, is something the data will clarify over the next month.
The anomaly: RFE cases cleared faster than plain ones this week
This week the rfe_fast anomaly flag fired. Cases that received and responded to an RFE (Request for Evidence, USCIS's standard follow-up letter asking for missing documents) posted a median of 21 days from last reported status to approval, compared to 41 days for cases that never received one. RFE-stamped cases cleared FASTER than the plain-processing group this week. Receiving an RFE does not by itself signal denial; the flag here reflects unusually quick resolution on the response-to-approval leg, not a higher denial rate.
1.95x RFE response cases clear faster than the plain processing cohort.
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