Approval Trends Brief
Issue 26Published Jun 22, 2026
Green Card Replacement · Week 26
I-90 · Green card replacement

I-90 Final-Stage Wait Falls From 231 Days to 21 Days in 12 Weeks

The median final-stage wait for I-90 green card renewals has declined at a slope of -22.7 days per week over the past 12 weeks, an R² of 0.93 confirming this is a sustained trend. The practical implication for the large cohorts filed in March through May 2026 is direct: cases that entered a slow queue are now approaching a near-instant final stage.

The I-90 final-stage wait (the median days from a case's last reported status to approval) stood at 21 days the week of June 22, down from 231 days in early April, a 210-day reduction over 11 weeks. The 8-week regression slope is -22.7 days per week with an R² of 0.93, placing this among the most consistent drawdowns in the 12-week window tracked here. All 10,105 approvals this week routed through the IOE electronic filing channel. For applicants who filed in March through May 2026, the cohort (a group of cases) burndown (the share of same-month filers already approved) ranges from 37.5% to 49.4%, leaving tens of thousands of cases still pending even as the final-stage clock approaches its operational floor.

Key findings
  1. The I-90 final-stage median fell from 231 days (W15, Apr 6) to 21 days (W26, Jun 22), a 210-day drop over 11 weeks on a slope of -22.7 d/wk with R² 0.93.
  2. RFE (Request for Evidence)-stamped cases cleared in 21 days this week versus 97 days for plain-processing cases, a 4.68x gap that may reflect the small administrative group of RFE responders clearing together.
  3. The April 2026 filing-month group is 49.4% approved at week 13, while the older March 2026 group trails at 37.5% approved at week 18, consistent with March cases entering a slower part of the queue.
  4. The 4-week forecast projects a median of ~7 days, near the operational floor set by card-production time (median 5 days at that stage).
  5. The active backlog grew by 20,959 cases (+58.6%) over the 61 days ending July 7, driven largely by June 2026 intake, which may moderate the pace as new cases enter the queue.
01 / I-90 · Final-stage wait

From seven months to three weeks

21days
The final-stage wait for I-90 approvals this week: 21 days, down from 231 days at the start of the 12-week window in early April.Up 6 days from last week (15 days); the 12-week trailing average is 121 days.

The I-90 final-stage wait opened the 12-week window at 231 days (week of Apr 6) and has fallen in nearly every subsequent week, reaching 15 days last week before settling at 21 days the week of Jun 22. The 8-week regression slope is -22.7 days per week, and the R² of 0.93 indicates the line fits the data closely, meaning the drawdown is consistent rather than erratic. This week's +6-day uptick, from 15 to 21 days, does not reverse the trajectory: at that slope, a single-week fluctuation of this size is well within the residual scatter of 17 days around the trend line. The week-over-week move is a minor variation on what is otherwise a steep, sustained decline of roughly 19 days shed per week on average across the full 11-week span.

Figure 1
The I-90 final-stage median fell from 231 days in early April to 21 days by late June, with the 25th-to-75th percentile band narrowing sharply alongside the median.
Median days from last reported status to approval, with the p25 to p75 band.
250250200200150150100100505000DaysApr 6Apr 6Apr 13Apr 13Apr 20Apr 20Apr 27Apr 27May 4May 4May 11May 11May 18May 18May 25May 25Jun 1Jun 1Jun 8Jun 8Jun 15Jun 15Jun 22Jun 22Forecast
p25 to p75
Weekly median
Forecast
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W15 to 2026-W26. n = 95,536.
W15 · Apr 6
231days median
p25 216 / p75 239 / n 9,804
W26 · Jun 22
21days median
p25 12 / p75 22 / n 10,105
A 210-day reduction in 11 weeks works out to roughly 19 days shed per week on average, a pace the regression line has held with an R² of 0.93.
02 / I-90 · Pipeline snapshot

Where 656,000 pending cases actually stand

Fast approvals at the tail of the queue coexist with a large group of cases still in early processing. Based on Stage durations (30-day raw window), the largest share of the active pipeline sits at 'Case Is Still Being Processed By USCIS': 318,924 cases, or 48.7% of all active statuses tracked, with a median of 164 days at that stage (25th percentile 111 days, 75th percentile 208 days). Alongside those, 141,340 cases (21.6% of the pipeline) are already at the card-production stage, where the median wait is just 5 days. These two populations, one still months from adjudication (the USCIS decision step where approval, denial, or a request for more information is issued), the other days from a card in the mail, reflect how uneven the drawdown is across the full queue.

Figure 2
The pipeline divides sharply: cases still in active processing carry a median of 164 days at that stage, while card-production cases are 5 days from completion.
Weighted-average weekly p25 / p50 / p75 of the final-stage wait, last 12 weeks. Spread reflects week-to-week stability, not raw case distribution.
Last status before approval
Cases
Distribution (days)
Median
processing
82,419
p25 78 · p75 111
98 d
biometrics
3,794
p25 19 · p75 22
20 d
received
1,710
p25 192 · p75 207
199 d
rfe
471
p25 23 · p75 50
32 d
rfe_response
455
p25 4 · p75 19
9 d
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W15 to 2026-W26. n = 656,186.

A third cluster, 97,194 cases at the biometrics (fingerprint and photo appointment) stage, shows a median of 29 days. This is normal queue time: for I-90, USCIS often reuses biometrics from prior filings, so the status updates quickly, and cases that show 'Biometrics Appointment Was Scheduled' are typically progressing through the standard queue rather than experiencing a scheduling problem. The picture at the Request for Evidence response stage, a small group of 1,927 cases, is covered in the next section.

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About this brief

Approval Trends Brief is a weekly data report from the MyCasesHub Data Team. It uses live USCIS case status updates from millions of cases tracked through MyCasesHub. Briefs are issued every Monday and revised whenever a material trend change is detected.

Methodology and resources

  • Source: USCIS case status updates collected through MyCasesHub user activity.
  • Approval marker: first occurrence of approval, card produced, or oath ceremony status.
  • Days to approval: time from a case's last non-approval status update to that marker.
  • Outlier rule: cases with a measured wait above 1,095 days are excluded.
  • Sample size threshold: cohorts with fewer than 100 cases are flagged as low confidence.
  • How we compute these numbers·I-90 only