I-821 preliminary median jumps 95 days in one week, but thin sample clouds the early signal

The week of Sep 14 produced a preliminary 168-day median (the 50th percentile, meaning half of approved cases cleared faster and half slower) for I-821 TPS applications, up from 74 days the prior week. That 95-day move caused the outlier_week_high anomaly flag to fire at z = 6.15, measured against the prior 4-week trailing mean. A z-score at that level marks this as the most statistically distant single-week reading in the 12-week window, though a z-score is a statement about how far the reading sits from recent trend, not a verdict on what caused the shift.

The 103-case preliminary sample is the most important caveat. The prior 12-week weekly counts have ranged from about 107 to 266 cases, with a trailing average near 180, so this week's figure rests on a thinner base than most. The preliminary read may move meaningfully as additional approvals are recorded. The 25th percentile (p25) sits at 80 days and the 75th percentile (p75) at 209 days this week, a spread of 129 days that reflects a mixed pool of cases clearing at very different wait times.

Placed against the 12-week trailing average of 59 days, this week's preliminary read is nearly three times that level. The wide p25-to-p75 spread of 80 to 209 days suggests the approved-case pool this week is internally varied, with some cases clearing quickly and others carrying long prior-stage waits, consistent with a mixed composition rather than a uniform processing shift.

The 12-week series has been volatile throughout. The median ran as low as 2 days in W27 (Jun 29) before rising to 50 days in W29, then oscillating with readings of 95 days in W32, 96 days in W34, and 90 days in W35. A quieter stretch followed in W36 and W37, with medians of 65 and 74 days respectively. The 8-week regression slope of +12.7 days per week (R² = 0.45) describes an upward drift, but the R² of 0.45 indicates that roughly half the week-to-week variance is not captured by the trend line. The direction is real; the week-to-week path is not clean.

The same week last year posted a median of 210 days across 336 cases. This week's preliminary 168-day read is about 19.7% below that prior-year benchmark, which provides some context: even if the current preliminary reading holds, it may still be running shorter than the 2025 pace for the same ISO week. The two samples differ substantially in size (336 vs. 103 cases), so the year-over-year comparison should be read with care.

Even at 168 days, this week's early read sits below last year's same-week figure of 210 days, though the trend inside 2026 is bending upward.

The live pending population tells the structural story. Using raw case-level figures from the 30-day stage window, the 'USCIS Is Currently Processing the Case' status holds 50,333 cases (59.5% of observed) at a median of 419 days since last status, with the middle half of cases falling between 366 and 474 days. 'Case Was Received and A Receipt Notice Was Sent' holds 20,177 cases (23.9%) at a median of 297 days. Together, these two stages account for more than 83% of the observed queue and show that the majority of pending I-821 cases are deep in adjudication (USCIS's case decision step, where the approval, denial, or request for more information is issued), not at intake.

A TPS-specific entry in the stage data is worth noting. The 'TPS Country Designation Terminated By FRN' (Federal Register Notice) status appears at a median of 104 days across 977 cases, or about 1.2% of observed cases. The recent-activity table shows 8,794 IOE transitions in the last 30 days with 'terminated' as the dominant status, and the filing-month snapshot shows 5,869 cases filed in September 2025 currently at terminated status. When a country's TPS designation ends, the pending queue for that country's cases closes. The data does not identify which country is affected; cases in this category are those touched by a recent country-designation termination.

On the positive side, the 'Case Was Conditionally Approved' status shows 165 cases at a median of 37 days. Cases at this stage are typically close to final approval, so this small subset represents cases that are largely through the adjudication process.