I-821 Approvals Run 66% Faster Than Last Year as Termination Wave Closes Tens of Thousands of Cases
This week's 66-day final-stage median sits 130 days below the same week in 2025. At the same time, more than 37,000 IOE transitions in the last 30 days carried a dominant status of "terminated," reflecting TPS country-designation terminations that are closing cases through a mechanism separate from adjudication speed.
The I-821 final-stage median reached 66 days the week of August 31, compared with 196 days in the same week of 2025, a 130-day, 66.2% gap. Last week's median was 90 days, so this week added a further 24-day improvement. Those approval numbers, however, sit alongside a separate and large movement: over the past 30 days, 37,023 IOE transitions carried the dominant status "TPS Country Designation Terminated By FRN," closing cases through a country-designation termination rather than an adjudication (USCIS's decision step) decision. Both signals are present this week, and they describe different populations moving toward resolution in different ways.
- The I-821 final-stage median fell to 66 days the week of Aug 31, down 130 days (66.2%) from 196 days in the same week of 2025.
- Week-to-week medians have ranged from 2 days to 97 days over the last 12 weeks, a spread that reflects the varying composition of who is approved each week rather than a stable throughput rate.
- 37,023 IOE09 transitions in the last 30 days carried the dominant status 'terminated,' reflecting TPS country-designation terminations that close cases outside the standard approval pathway.
- Filing-month groups from April through June 2026 show clearance rates of 7.5% to 9.4% at ages 14 to 22 weeks, consistent with normal early-stage pacing for I-821.
- The 4-week forecast carries an R² of 0.37, too weak for a single-number projection; the week of Sep 28 projects at approximately ~39 to 167 days if the current slope continues.
A year ago, TPS applicants waited three times as long
This week's median of 66 days compares with 196 days in the same week of 2025 across 303 approved cases, a 66.2% gap. Last week's reading was 90 days, so this week marks a further 24-day improvement. For applicants tracking their own cases, a 66-day final-stage wait means that among cases approved this week, half resolved within roughly two months of their last reported status update. That figure does not describe every pending case; it reflects the composition of cases that happened to clear this particular week, which can vary as the queue's mix shifts.
The week-to-week swings are too large to ignore
The 12-week series runs from a low of 2 days in late June to a high of 97 days in mid-August, with this week landing at 66 days. The spread between the 25th percentile (p25) and the 75th percentile (p75) has been similarly wide in some weeks: the week of August 3 showed a p75 of 524 days against a median of 95, while this week's p75 is 127 days against a median of 66. That volatility is itself informative. The I-821 queue contains cases at very different stages of their processing life, and a given week's median reflects whoever happened to reach approval that week, not a steady or predictable throughput rate. The 8-week slope of +9.2 days per week and an R² of 0.37 together indicate that a rising trend is present but explains only about a third of the week-to-week variation.
Terminations, not approvals, are closing most cases right now
Alongside the weekly approval numbers sits a separate and much larger movement. Over the last 30 days, 37,023 IOE09 transitions carried the dominant status 'TPS Country Designation Terminated By FRN.' When the Department of Homeland Security ends a country's Temporary Protected Status designation through a Federal Register Notice, affected cases move to terminated status rather than approved or denied. This is a distinct pathway from the adjudication (the USCIS case decision step where approval, denial, or a Request for Evidence is issued) that produces the weekly median. The total active I-821 pending backlog of cases across all filing cohorts fell by 1,860, or 1.5%, over the 28 days from August 10 to September 7; the data brief notes that termination activity and standard approvals are both present in that period, though it does not assign the 1,860-case decline to either cause specifically.
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