I-821 Final-Stage Wait Holds Near 411 Days on a Preliminary Early Read
Week 19 brings a tentative 146-case sample and no anomaly flags, leaving the 12-week oscillation between 375 and 450 days the most reliable summary of where TPS processing stands.
An early read on I-821 (Application for Temporary Protected Status) approvals in the week of May 4 puts the median final-stage wait at 411 days, up 2 days from 409 the prior week. The sample of 146 approved cases is preliminary, running at roughly half the prior 12-week typical volume, so the number may shift as data matures. The 12-week trailing average sits at 404 days, and weekly medians have ranged from 375 to 450 days across that window with no consistent direction. No anomaly flags fired this week.
- The preliminary median of 411 days (146 cases) is up just 2 days week over week, within the 12-week range of 375 to 450 days.
- The 8-week slope of +2.7 days per week carries an R² of only 0.14, well below the 0.4 threshold for asserting direction; the pattern is noisy and stable.
- The active backlog grew by 21 cases (+8.3%) in six days ending May 10, with the April 2026 filing-month group adding 11 of those active cases.
- Over 84% of observed I-821 cases sit at two statuses: 'Case Is Still Being Processed By USCIS' (56.2%, median 250 days) or 'Case Was Received' (28.3%, median 190 days).
- The 4-week forecast band runs from ~377 to ~457 days by the week of June 1, a 72-day spread that reflects the weak regression fit and limits the usefulness of any single projected median.
A quiet week at 411 days
This week's I-821 final-stage wait median came in at 411 days, an early read from a sample of 146 approved cases. That sample is preliminary, running roughly half the volume typical of recent weeks, and the figure could shift as the week's data fills in. The prior week's median was 409 days, a difference of 2 days (+0.4%). For broader context, the 12-week trailing average stands at 404 days, and weekly medians have moved between 375 days (the week of Feb 16) and 450 days (the week of Apr 13) without settling into a clear direction.
The slope exists; the trend does not
The 8-week linear regression shows a slope of +2.7 days per week, which would nominally add about 22 days over 8 weeks if sustained. In practice, the regression explains only 14% of week-to-week variation (R² = 0.14). Per the statistical standards this brief applies, a slope backed by an R² below 0.4 does not support asserting direction. What the 12-week data actually show is weekly medians ranging from 375 to 450 days, with readings above 410 days and below 400 days appearing in alternating weeks. The scatter around any fitted line is wide enough to absorb several weeks of movement in either direction.
The regression line points slightly upward, but weekly readings scatter around it too widely to treat that direction as settled.
Active cases grew 8% in six days
The active pending backlog (cases not yet approved or closed) grew by 21 cases, from 254 to 275, between May 4 and May 10, an increase of 8.3% over six days. The April 2026 filing-month group accounts for 11 of those 21 new active cases, making it the fastest-growing segment tracked in the filing-month cohort (a group of cases) data. Cases filed across 2026-01 through 2026-04 show essentially zero approvals to date: the January group (38 total cases) has not yet produced a single approval, and the February group (72 total cases) sits at just 2.8% approved. This aligns with the 411-day median final-stage wait: cases filed in early 2026 would not be expected to clear until roughly mid-2027 at the current pace.
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