I-765 Week 19 Preliminary Read: Median Jumps 8 Days but Trend Stays Modestly Downward
An early-read median of 103 days triggered a statistically significant outlier flag this week, even as the 8-week slope remains negative and RFE (Request for Evidence)-path cases cleared at an unusually fast pace. The picture is mixed, not settled.
The preliminary I-765 median for the week of May 4 came in at 103 days, up 8 days from last week's 95, triggering an outlier flag at 3.06σ above the 8-week trend. At the same time, the 8-week regression slope sits at -2.6 days per week, the 12-week trailing average is 110 days (meaning 103 is still below that baseline), and RFE-stamped cases cleared in just 29 days against 114 days for plain-processing cases. The week's sample of 4,599 approved cases is roughly 50 to 70% of the prior 12-week median volume, so the 103-day reading should be treated as an early signal pending next week's fuller count.
- This week's preliminary median of 103 days is up 8 days from last week's 95, firing an outlier flag at z = 3.06 above the 4-week trailing trend.
- The 8-week slope remains -2.6 days per week, but the weak R² of 0.20 means the series is noisy and direction should not be stated with confidence.
- EAC's median stands at 230 days, 196 days above SRC's 34-day median, with EAC's slope running at +28.9 days per week (R² = 0.48).
- RFE-stamped cases cleared in 29 days this week, compared with 114 days for plain-processing cases, reflecting an unusual batch clearance rather than a structural policy shift.
- The active I-765 queue grew by 17,318 cases in six days, a 6.2% increase, driven largely by the April 2026 filing-month group which is only 5 weeks old and 6.0% cleared.
A spike, but an early read
This week's I-765 median is a preliminary read, based on 4,599 approved cases, roughly 50 to 70% of the prior 12-week average weekly volume. The 8-day rise from last week's 95 days to 103 days was large enough to fire an outlier flag at 3.06σ above the prior 4-week trailing mean. Against that recent baseline, this week's reading is the furthest above trend in the 12-week window.
Put in longer context, however, the picture is calmer. The 12-week trailing average sits at 110 days, so 103 days is still 7 days below that baseline. The series has ranged from 85 days (W17, Apr 20) to 151 days (W10, Mar 2) over the past three months, meaning this week's reading lands in the middle of the recent historical band, not above it.
The drift is still downward
The 8-week regression slope for I-765 sits at -2.6 days per week, indicating a modest downward tendency over the prior two months. The R² of 0.20, however, is well below the 0.70 threshold that would support confident directional language. The more honest read is that the series has hovered between 85 and 151 days across the 12-week window, without a clean linear pattern in either direction.
What makes this week's reading stand out is the four consecutive weeks immediately before it: the median was 89 days (W14, Mar 30), 89 days (W15, Apr 6), 91 days (W16, Apr 13), and 85 days (W17, Apr 20). Those four readings gave the impression of a settled, sub-100-day plateau. This week's 103 is the first break above 100 since W13 (Mar 23, 99 days), illustrating what a noisy-stable pattern looks like in practice.
196 days between the fastest and slowest centers
The uneven_centers flag fired this week with a spread value of 165.82 days, reflecting a 196-day gap between SRC's 34-day median (across 304 cases) and EAC's 230-day median (across 251 cases). The two centers with worsening trajectories are EAC (slope +28.9 days per week, R² = 0.48) and LIN (slope +15.4 days per week, R² = 0.48). Both R² values are in the moderate range, meaning the upward trends at those centers are real, not pure noise. By contrast, IOE processed 3,146 of the week's 4,599 approved cases and carries a slope of -5.6 days per week (R² = 0.30); its improving trajectory has the largest practical effect on the overall median, given its share of total volume. Case mix differs across centers, so these comparisons describe population-level patterns, not uniform performance gaps.
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