I-751 Final-Stage Waits Are 156 Days Below Last Year, but This Week Rose 10
The week of Sep 21 brought a 10-day rise from the prior week and a pending caseload of about 352,000 active cases, complicating an otherwise substantial year-over-year improvement.
I-751 final-stage waits stand at 84 days this week, down from 240 days in the same week of 2025, a 64.9% reduction that directly affects how conditional residents plan for the end of their two-year period. That year-over-year figure is the dominant signal. At the same time, this week's median is 10 days above last week's 74-day reading, the largest single-week move in the 12-week window, and the pending caseload of about 352,000 active cases grew 1.8% over the prior 28 days. The data supports neither confident optimism nor alarm; a noisy plateau is the more accurate description.
- The I-751 final-stage median this week is 84 days, down 156 days (64.9%) from the 240-day reading in the same week of 2025.
- The week-over-week jump is +10 days (from 74 to 84), the largest single-week move in the 12-week window, though no anomaly flag fired.
- RFE (Request for Evidence)-stamped cases cleared in 48 days, 23 days faster than the 71-day median for plain-processing cases, consistent with a batch or selection effect rather than a causal one.
- The active pending backlog stands at roughly 352,000 cases, up about 6,400 (+1.8%) over the prior 28 days.
- The four-week forecast carries a wide band of ~66 to 113 days, reflecting a weak R² of 0.27 on the 8-week trend.
A year ago, 240 days. Today, 84.
The median final-stage wait for I-751 (Petition to Remove Conditions on Residence) approvals this week is 84 days. In the same week of 2025, that figure was 240 days. The 156-day, 64.9% reduction is the most important number in this issue, and for conditional residents tracking their cases, it represents a substantial shift in how long the final stage of their case decision step is taking. That improvement deserves to be read plainly: conditions are materially better than they were a year ago.
The complication is this week's reading itself. The median rose 10 days from last week's 74, the largest single-week move in the 12-week window. No anomaly flag fired, meaning the jump falls within the normal scatter of a noisy series, but it is worth holding alongside the year-over-year figure rather than setting aside.
The curve flattened before it reached you
Over the past 12 weeks, the I-751 final-stage median has ranged from 45 days (the week of Jul 13) to 95 days (the week of Aug 24). The 8-week regression slope is +2.3 days per week, but the R² of 0.27 means the trend line explains only about a quarter of the week-to-week variance. The pattern is classified as noisy stable. This week's 84-day reading and last week's 74-day reading are both well within that range. The dramatic year-over-year improvement appears to have already occurred; what remains is a series that moves around without a clear direction.
All 435 approvals this week processed through the IOE (electronic filing) center, with 0% of cases having been transferred before approval. There is no cross-center mix effect in this week's aggregate; the single-center view is clean.
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