I-751 Waits Are 70% Below Last Year, but a Rising 8-Week Trend Signals Caution
The week of Sept. 14 brought a 74-day final-stage median, against 243 days in the same week last year. The 8-week slope tells a more complicated story.
I-751 final-stage waits hit 74 days in the week of Sept. 14, down from 243 days in the same week of 2025 and equal to the 3-year same-week average of 243 days. That 70% year-over-year reduction is real, but it reflects cases already deep in the queue, not the pace facing 2026 filers. At the same time, the 8-week slope has been climbing at +3.3 days per week, and the active backlog of pending I-751 cases grew by 5,443 cases over the past 28 days. The picture is genuinely mixed: the headline improvement is large, and the forward signals point upward.
- This week's 74-day final-stage median is 70% below the same week last year (243 days), the largest year-over-year gap in the 12-week window.
- The 8-week slope is +3.3 days per week (R²=0.41), meaning the median has risen roughly 29 days since the June trough near 45 days.
- Cases with an RFE (Request for Evidence) response cleared in a median 50 days this week, 20 days faster than the 70-day median for cases without one, a reversal that likely reflects the composition of older cases clearing rather than any speed advantage from receiving an RFE.
- The April 2026 filing-month group (now 24 weeks old) is only 0.1% cleared, while the active backlog grew +5,443 cases over the past 28 days.
- If the recent trend continues, the forecast band for the week of Oct. 12 runs ~66 to 108 days, reflecting meaningful week-to-week variance under the current R²=0.41 regression.
A year's worth of improvement, with a catch
The I-751, Petition to Remove Conditions on Residence, posted a 74-day final-stage median in the week of Sept. 14, down from 82 days the week before and well below the 243-day reading recorded in the same week last year. The 3-year same-week average also sits at 243 days, so the gap between where things stood historically and where they stand now is as wide as the data carries. That said, the weekly median measures cases approved this week, which were filed long before 2026. The improvement describes the current approval cohort (a group of cases), not the pace facing applicants who filed in recent months.
The 8-week slope is +3.3 days per week, with an R² of 0.41, a moderate directional signal rather than a settled trend. From the June trough near 45 days, the median has climbed about 29 days over that span. The week-to-week movement is real but noisy: the 12-week range runs from 45 to 95 days, and a single week can move the figure by 10 or more days. No anomaly flags fired this week, so this appears to follow the underlying drift rather than any one-week shock.
Where time is spent: a look inside the pipeline
The approval cohort by last status breaks into three paths. Cases cleared via interview showed a weighted-average median of 38 days across 2,844 cases over the last 12 weeks. Cases cleared through straight processing ("USCIS Is Currently Processing the Case") averaged 102 days at the median (p50 (the median, 50th percentile)), across 2,808 cases. Cases cleared after an RFE response averaged 50 days at the median, across 358 cases. The biometrics (fingerprint appointment) stage, which accounts for about 42% of the active stock by case count, carries a raw-case median of 19 days at that status, but cases that have been at the "Case Was Updated To Show Fingerprints Were Taken" status for an extended period show a much longer median of 1,168 days, based on Stage durations (30-day raw) data, suggesting some cases have been in that queue for years.
The 102-day approval-cohort figure for the processing path and the 288-day raw-case median for cases currently sitting at that status describe two different populations. The approval cohort captures cases that already cleared, skewing toward those that moved through relatively quickly. The Stage durations (30-day raw) figure includes all cases observed at that status in the last 30 days, across 30,493 cases, most of which are still pending and have been waiting considerably longer. Neither number is wrong; they answer different questions.
The RFE reversal: why flagged cases cleared faster this week
Cases with an RFE (Request for Evidence) response cleared in a median 50 days this week, 20 days faster than the 70-day median for cases without one. The speed ratio is 1.39x in favor of the RFE-stamped group. This is most likely a population artifact: the cases that received an RFE and then responded probably came from a specific older filing window that is now clearing in volume, pulling that group's median down. It does not mean that receiving an RFE speeds up a case for any individual applicant. An RFE is not a denial signal; most cases that receive one are still approved.
1.39x RFE response cases clear faster than the plain processing cohort.
The faster RFE result this week reflects which cases happened to clear, not a speed advantage that comes with receiving an RFE.
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