Approval Trends Brief
Issue 45Published Nov 2, 2026
Removal of Conditions · Week 45
I-751 · Removal of conditions

I-751 Total Wait Hits 565 Days, Up 51 Percent Year Over Year as Backlog Grows

Cases approved the week of Nov 2 waited a median of 565 days from filing, the highest reading in the 12-week series. The pending backlog of conditional-residence petitions grew by 16,215 cases in the prior 28 days.

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The median I-751 filer approved this week waited 565 days from filing to approval, up from 374 days in the same week of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 51.1%. Last week's figure was 530 days. Seventy percent of approved cases waited more than a year; none cleared within 45 days of filing. The pending backlog of I-751 petitions not yet decided stands at 401,656 cases as of Nov 9, up from 385,441 four weeks earlier, an increase of 16,215. Every wait figure in this brief is measured on cases that were already approved; how long the 401,656 pending cases will ultimately wait is unknown.

Key findings
  1. The total wait median for I-751 cases approved the week of Nov 2 reached 565 days, up 191 days (+51.1%) from the same week last year (374 days, n=719).
  2. The pending backlog of unresolved I-751 petitions grew to 401,656 cases as of Nov 9, an increase of 16,215 over the prior 28 days (+4.2%).
  3. The final-stage wait (time from the last status update to approval) rose 12 days week-over-week to 126 days, on an 8-week slope of +5.5 days per week (R²=0.49).
  4. An RFE (Request for Evidence) anomaly fired this week: cases with an RFE response cleared in a median of 34 days, compared with 91 days for cases without any RFE, an inversion consistent with a batch-clearing effect.
  5. No cases filed after July 2026 have been approved yet, consistent with the long processing pipeline; the 2026-07 filing-month group (14,384 total cases) has seen only 72 approvals to date.
01 / I-751 · Week of Nov 2

565 days: a year-and-a-half wait is now the midpoint

565days
The total wait median for I-751 petitions approved this week, measured from the date USCIS received the case to approval. Half of approved cases waited longer; half waited less.Up from 530 days last week and 374 days the same week of 2025 (+51.1% year over year).

Cases approved in the week of Nov 2 waited a median of 565 days from the date USCIS received their I-751 petition to approval, compared with 374 days in the same week of 2025 and 530 days just last week. Seventy percent of approved cases waited more than a year, and not a single case cleared within 45 days of filing. The pending backlog of petitions not yet decided reached 401,656 as of Nov 9, up from 385,441 four weeks earlier, an increase of 16,215 cases (+4.2%). Every wait figure in this brief describes cases that have already been approved; the 401,656 still-pending cases have not yet been decided, and their eventual wait is unknown.

To put 565 days in context: conditional permanent residents file I-751 within a 90-day window before their 2-year green card expires, then wait for USCIS to issue the unconditional 10-year card. The median filer approved this week waited roughly 19 months from that filing. The process feels long, but the receipt notice extends their lawful permanent resident (LPR) status during pendency, so the wait does not threaten their right to live and work in the United States, even as the calendar advances.

02 / I-751 · 12-week total wait

The jump began in October and has not reversed

Figure 1
The 12-week total wait series shows a clear structural break in early October, with the median rising from the 150–298 day range seen in August and September to the 475–565 day range seen since.
Median days from last reported status to approval, with the p25 to p75 band.
300300250250200200150150100100505000DaysAug 17Aug 17Aug 24Aug 24Aug 31Aug 31Sep 7Sep 7Sep 14Sep 14Sep 21Sep 21Sep 28Sep 28Oct 5Oct 5Oct 12Oct 12Oct 19Oct 19Oct 26Oct 26Nov 2Nov 2Forecast
p25 to p75
Weekly median
Forecast
Last year
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-08-17 to 2026-11-02. n = 548 (cases with known filing date).

Through September, the weekly total wait medians for I-751 ranged from 150 days (the week of Aug 31) to 298 days (the week of Sep 7). The week of Oct 5, the median rose to 492 days and has not fallen below 475 since. This week's 565-day figure is the highest in the 12-week series. The shift is not confined to the slowest cases: the 25th percentile (p25), which a quarter of approved cases finished by, rose from roughly 150 to 190 days in August and September to 262 days this week, confirming the movement extends across a broad portion of the approval pool. The sample is 548 cases with known filing dates out of 550 approved, so the percentile estimates are reliable.

03 / I-751 · Final-stage wait

The final-stage wait is rising too, but it is a different clock

Separate from the total wait is the time from the last reported status update to approval, the final-stage wait. This week that figure was 126 days, up 12 days from 114 days last week. A year ago the same metric was 194 days, so viewed in isolation the year-over-year picture looks better. But the 8-week slope is +5.5 days per week with an R² of 0.49, meaning the final-stage wait has been rising since mid-September. At the 12-week low in mid-August it was 66 days; it has since nearly doubled over 12 weeks.

Figure 2
The stage breakdown reveals where time accumulates: the 'USCIS Is Currently Processing the Case' status carries a median of 303 days, the dominant slow stage among the three approval-cohort groups.
Weighted-average weekly p25 / p50 / p75 of the final-stage wait, last 12 weeks. Spread reflects week-to-week stability, not raw case distribution.
Last status before approval
Cases
Distribution (days)
Median
processing
2,864
p25 104 · p75 246
140 d
interview
2,603
p25 35 · p75 44
38 d
rfe_response
335
p25 6 · p75 94
34 d
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-08-17 to 2026-11-02. n = 2,864 (processing), 2,603 (interview), 335 (rfe_response).

Looking at where active cases currently sit, the stage duration data (raw percentiles across the last 30 days) shows that 40% of tracked cases are at 'Biometrics Appointment Was Scheduled,' with a median of just 19 days at that status, still early in the pipeline across 97,727 cases. A more concerning share: 13.9% of tracked cases, across 34,051 cases, sit at 'USCIS Is Currently Processing the Case,' with a median of 303 days at that status, a 25th percentile of 208 days, and a 75th percentile of 369 days. A smaller group, 0.9% of tracked cases across 2,098 cases, has reached 'Case Was Updated To Show Fingerprints Were Taken' and shows a median of 1,214 days at that status (25th percentile 936 days, 75th percentile 1,312 days). These cases represent the deepest end of the processing queue, not the typical pathway.

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About this brief

Approval Trends Brief is a weekly data report from the MyCasesHub Data Team. It uses live USCIS case status updates from millions of cases tracked through MyCasesHub. Briefs are issued every Monday and revised whenever a material trend change is detected.

Methodology and resources

  • Source: USCIS case status updates collected through MyCasesHub user activity.
  • Approval marker: first occurrence of approval, card produced, or oath ceremony status.
  • Total wait (headline figure when at least 100 approvals that week, and at least half of them, have a known filing date): days from the date USCIS received the case to that marker. When the received date is not shown, it is estimated from neighbouring receipt numbers.
  • Final-stage wait (trend charts): days from a case's last status update before approval to that marker. It is shorter than the total wait.
  • All waits are measured on approved cases. USCIS's published processing time counts the time within which 80% of a category's cases were completed, so it is not the same statistic.
  • Outlier rule: final-stage waits above 1,095 days and total waits above 3,650 days are excluded.
  • Sample size threshold: cohorts with fewer than 100 cases are flagged as low confidence.
  • How we compute these numbers·I-751 only