Preliminary dip to 103 days masks a steep six-week climb in I-539 wait times
An early read for the week of May 25 shows a one-week drop, but the underlying 8-week slope of +6.4 days per week and a 204-day gap between the fastest and slowest service centers tell a more complicated story.
The I-539 final-stage median fell 9 days this week to a preliminary 103 days, the first decline after six consecutive weekly increases. The drop comes from a sample of 1,836 approvals, roughly half the prior 12-week average volume, so the reading could shift as more cases are recorded. Against the 8-week slope of +6.4 days per week (R² = 0.76), one week of improvement is not a trend reversal. More telling is the gap between the Texas Service Center (SRC) at 28 days and the Vermont Service Center (EAC) at 232 days: a 204-day spread that the aggregate median masks entirely.
- This week's preliminary median of 103 days is 9 days below last week's 111 days, but the sample of 1,836 cases is about half the prior 12-week pace and may revise.
- The 8-week slope of +6.4 days per week (R² = 0.76) is among the steepest in the 12-week window, with the median up roughly 37 days since early April.
- The Texas Service Center (SRC) cleared cases in 28 days this week while the Vermont Service Center (EAC) posted 232 days, a 204-day spread that triggered the uneven-centers anomaly flag.
- RFE (Request for Evidence) response cases posted a median of 15 days versus 92 days for non-RFE cases, an inverted ratio that likely reflects a specific batch of older responses clearing rather than a structural change.
- The January 2026 filing-month group is 49.3% cleared at 20 weeks, and the active pending backlog grew by 3,098 cases (+8.7%) over the 18 days ending May 25.
A tentative break in a six-week climb
The I-539 median dropped to 103 days for the week of May 18, based on a preliminary sample of 1,836 approved cases. That sample runs at roughly half the prior 12-week average weekly volume, so this week's reading carries more uncertainty than a full-strength week. The one-week move, from 111 days to 103 days, is the first decline after six straight weekly increases. The broader context is less encouraging: the 8-week slope sits at +6.4 days per week (R² = 0.76), and the 12-week trailing average is 90 days, well below this week's median, meaning the recent climb has pulled the current reading well above the longer-run pace.
The slope that one week cannot bend
The 8-week regression tells a consistent story: the I-539 final-stage median has added roughly 37 days since the week of April 6, when the median stood at 66 days. The slope of +6.4 days per week with an R² of 0.76 indicates the upward direction is real, not noise. The 12-week window ran from 66 days at its low to 111 days at the prior week's high before this week's reading. A single preliminary dip does not alter that trajectory. If the trend continues, the median is on a path toward the low-to-mid 100s through June, with the forecast band widening as the projection extends.
204 days between the fastest and slowest center
The Texas Service Center (SRC) posted a median of 28 days this week across 1,044 approved cases, accounting for about 57% of the week's total approved volume. Its 8-week slope of +2.7 days per week is the shallowest among the five active centers. The California Service Center (WAC), identified by the WAC receipt-number prefix, showed a median of 185 days across 420 cases, with a slope of +2.2 days per week (R² = 0.51). The Vermont Service Center (EAC) sat at 232 days across 305 cases, with the steepest reliable slope in the data at +9.6 days per week (R² = 0.75). The Nebraska Service Center (LIN) posted 151 days, but its sample of 38 cases is too thin to draw a firm directional conclusion. The Potomac Service Center (YSC) showed a slope of +12.0 days per week, the highest in the table, but with only 29 cases this week, the reading is too small to interpret with confidence. Because the five centers process different case mixes and volumes, these medians are not directly comparable as a performance ranking; SRC's large share of approvals pulls the aggregate median down considerably.
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