I-539 Final-Stage Waits Hit a Preliminary 107 Days, Climbing for Six Straight Weeks
An early read for the week of May 4 shows the median has risen 41 days since early April, driven by a sharp acceleration at the Vermont Service Center. If the trend holds, applicants could face waits approaching 130 days or more by June.
The I-539 final-stage wait reached a preliminary 107-day median in the week of May 4, based on 1,656 approved cases, roughly half the prior 12-week pace. That sample size means the figure is an early read, not a settled weekly reading. Even so, the direction is clear: the median has climbed from 66 days in the week of April 6 to 107 days in five weeks, and the 8-week slope of +5.0 days per week (R² = 0.61) confirms a real directional trend. The 12-week trailing average sits at 83 days, making this week's median 24 days above the recent norm. The Vermont Service Center (EAC) is running at +17.6 days per week with R² = 0.85, the steepest and most statistically confident acceleration among all processing centers.
- The preliminary W19 median of 107 days is 24 days above the 12-week trailing average of 83 days, with a sample of 1,656 cases (roughly half the typical weekly pace).
- The 8-week slope of +5.0 days per week (R² = 0.61) confirms a sustained upward trend, not a single-week fluctuation.
- EAC (Vermont Service Center) is accelerating at +17.6 days per week with R² = 0.85, producing a 213-day median this week versus SRC's 31 days, a 182-day gap across centers.
- The rfe_fast anomaly fired: RFE (Request for Evidence) response cases cleared in a median 14 days this week versus 85 days for plain cases, an unusual inversion likely reflecting a batch clearance effect.
- The December 2025 filing-month group is only 50.5% approved at 22 weeks, and the total active pending count of 35,329 cases grew by just 93 (+0.3%) over six days, leaving the pipeline nearly flat while the weekly median rises.
Six weeks up, and the line keeps climbing
At a preliminary sample of 1,656 cases this week, the I-539 final-stage wait median stands at 107 days, an early read that could shift as the full week's approvals are counted. The 12-week trailing average is 83 days, placing this week's reading 24 days above the recent norm. The 8-week slope of +5.0 days per week, with R² = 0.61, confirms the direction is a real trend rather than a single-week fluctuation.
The 41-day rise from 66 days (week of April 6) to 107 days (week of May 4) spans five consecutive weeks. The acceleration is not confined to the slowest cases: the 25th percentile (p25) moved from 40 days in W15 to 72 days in W19, and the 75th percentile (p75) moved from 96 days to 159 days. Both ends of the distribution lifted, suggesting a broad-based shift rather than a small group of long-pending cases pulling the median up.
Vermont and Potomac pull the aggregate higher
The uneven_centers anomaly flag fired this week, with a gap of 182 days between the fastest and slowest centers (31 days at SRC versus 213 days at EAC), based on 840 cases at SRC and 313 cases at EAC. EAC's 8-week slope of +17.6 days per week with R² = 0.85 is the steepest and most statistically well-fitted center-level trend in the dataset. YSC (Potomac Service Center) is rising at +14.6 days per week with R² = 0.74, posting a 186-day median across 29 cases this week. By contrast, SRC is rising at a more moderate +2.3 days per week (R² = 0.72), WAC (California Service Center) at +1.8 days per week (R² = 0.40, a weaker fit), and LIN (Nebraska Service Center) is essentially flat at +0.2 days per week with R² = 0.00. The aggregate trend is concentrated at two centers, not spread uniformly across the form.
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