Approval Trends Brief
Issue 44Published Oct 26, 2026
Special Immigrant Petition · Week 44
I-360 · Special immigrant petition

I-360 Total Wait Reaches 197 Days, Up 20% From a Year Ago

The median wait from filing to approval has climbed steadily through the fall of 2026, while the pending backlog grew by more than 41,000 cases in 28 days to 182,540.

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The median I-360 total wait from filing to approval reached 197 days in Week 44, up from 164 days in the same week last year, a 20.1% increase across the 388 cases with known filing dates. At the same time, 182,540 cases remain pending as of November 4, up from 140,880 just 28 days earlier. Every wait figure in this brief is measured on cases that were already approved; none describes how long those 182,540 pending cases have waited. The acceleration is broad-based and consistent across multiple signals, with no single-week explanation available in the current data.

Key findings
  1. The median total wait (filing to approval) for I-360 cases reached 197 days in Week 44, up from 164 days in the same week last year, a 20.1% year-over-year increase.
  2. The final-stage wait (time from last status update to approval) rose from 63 days in W33 (August 10) to 142 days in W44, on a slope of +9.3 days per week (R²=0.78).
  3. The pending I-360 backlog grew by 41,660 cases (+29.6%) in 28 days, reaching 182,540 as of November 4.
  4. An RFE (Request for Evidence) anomaly flag fired this week: RFE-stamped cases cleared in a median of 11 days, compared to 96 days for plain-processing cases, an 8.6x gap that appears to reflect a batch of older cases resolving together.
  5. If the current 8-week slope continues, the forecast projects the final-stage median to reach ~179 days by November 23 (range ~166 to 192 days).
01 / I-360 · Week 44 lead finding

197 days, and the line is still climbing

197days
The median total wait from filing to approval for I-360 cases approved in Week 44, based on 388 cases with a known filing date.Up from 196 days last week and 164 days in the same week last year (+20.1% year over year).

Of the 389 I-360 cases approved in Week 44, 388 had a known filing date. Their median wait from USCIS receipt to approval was 197 days. As of November 4, 182,540 cases remain pending, up from 140,880 just 28 days earlier. Every wait figure in this brief is measured on approved cases only; none describes how long those pending cases have waited. Against the same week in 2025, when the median stood at 164 days across 602 approvals, this week's figure represents a 20.1% increase.

The total-wait trend has moved steadily upward across the 12-week window. The median was 190 days in early August, rose through 194–196 days in September and early October, and reached 197 days this week. The interquartile range (IQR, the spread from the 25th to the 75th percentile) widened in Week 44 (p25=196, p75=208) relative to the tight band seen in late September, when the 25th percentile (p25) was 193 days and the 75th percentile (p75) was 197 days. Nine percent of cases approved this week waited more than a year from filing to approval.

02 / I-360 · Final-stage acceleration

From 63 days in August to 142 days today

Figure 1
The 12-week trend shows the final-stage median rising from 63 days in W33 to 142 days in W44, with the p25-to-p75 band widening through October.
Median days from last reported status to approval, with the p25 to p75 band.
2002001501501001005050DaysAug 10Aug 10Aug 17Aug 17Aug 24Aug 24Aug 31Aug 31Sep 7Sep 7Sep 14Sep 14Sep 21Sep 21Sep 28Sep 28Oct 5Oct 5Oct 12Oct 12Oct 19Oct 19Oct 26Oct 26Forecast
p25 to p75
Weekly median
Forecast
Last year
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W33 to 2026-W44. n = 367 (W44).

The time from the last reported status update to approval, the final-stage wait, differs from the total wait and is a secondary metric. It was 63 days in W33 (August 10), dipped slightly through early September, then rose from 121 days in W39 (September 21) to 142 days in W44. The 8-week slope is +9.3 days per week with an R² of 0.78, meaning the linear trend accounts for roughly 78% of the week-to-week variance. That is a consistent, statistically meaningful rise, not week-to-week noise.

In the same week last year, the final-stage median was 163 days (n=88). This week's 142 days is modestly below that figure, but the trajectory differs. Last year's trend was flat-to-declining at this point in the calendar; this year's slope is sharply positive. The 12-week trailing average stands at 94 days, well below the current 142, confirming that most of the acceleration is concentrated in the most recent weeks.

The final-stage median was 63 days in early August. Ten weeks later it stands at 142, with the slope showing no sign of flattening.
03 / I-360 · Where time is spent

Half the tracked caseload is still at 'received', waiting a median of 203 days

Figure 2
The stage breakdown shows cases at 'Case Was Received' carrying the longest median wait among the high-volume stages, with a secondary cluster at 'Case Was Approved' reflecting cases with extended total waits.
Weighted-average weekly p25 / p50 / p75 of the final-stage wait, last 12 weeks. Spread reflects week-to-week stability, not raw case distribution.
Last status before approval
Cases
Distribution (days)
Median
decision
3,836
p25 1 · p75 3
1 d
received
3,007
p25 193 · p75 195
194 d
rfe_response
360
p25 2 · p75 12
6 d
notice
283
p25 218 · p75 387
349 d
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W33 to 2026-W44. n = 3,836 (decision cohort).

The stage-duration data (30-day window, raw percentiles) shows that the 'Case Was Received' status holds 49.4% of active cases, across 51,784 cases, with a median of 203 days (p25 188 days, p75 217 days). The 'Case Was Approved' status accounts for 9.0% of the pipeline, across 9,383 cases, at a median of 334 days (p25 319, p75 347), indicating a subset of cases with extended total waits before the final approval status was recorded. An additional 8.4% of the pipeline sits at the 'Special Immigrant Juvenile Form I-360 Approved Without Deferred Action' status, which resolves in a median of 1 day (p25 1, p75 3), across 8,832 cases, suggesting rapid administrative completion once that determination is made.

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About this brief

Approval Trends Brief is a weekly data report from the MyCasesHub Data Team. It uses live USCIS case status updates from millions of cases tracked through MyCasesHub. Briefs are issued every Monday and revised whenever a material trend change is detected.

Methodology and resources

  • Source: USCIS case status updates collected through MyCasesHub user activity.
  • Approval marker: first occurrence of approval, card produced, or oath ceremony status.
  • Total wait (headline figure when at least 100 approvals that week, and at least half of them, have a known filing date): days from the date USCIS received the case to that marker. When the received date is not shown, it is estimated from neighbouring receipt numbers.
  • Final-stage wait (trend charts): days from a case's last status update before approval to that marker. It is shorter than the total wait.
  • All waits are measured on approved cases. USCIS's published processing time counts the time within which 80% of a category's cases were completed, so it is not the same statistic.
  • Outlier rule: final-stage waits above 1,095 days and total waits above 3,650 days are excluded.
  • Sample size threshold: cohorts with fewer than 100 cases are flagged as low confidence.
  • How we compute these numbers·I-360 only