I-360 Total Wait Reaches 196 Days, Up 21.7% From Last Year as Backlog Grows

Of the 384 I-360 cases approved this week, the median filing-to-approval wait was 196 days, against 161 days in the same week of 2025. That 35-day year-over-year gap translates to a 21.7% increase. The pending backlog, a separate population of cases not yet decided (across all filing months as of October 21), stands at 181,488 cases, up from 137,423 just 28 days earlier. The approved-case metrics in this brief describe only those 384 decisions; they say nothing about how long the 181,488 still-pending cases have waited. A secondary signal compounds the picture: the time from the last status update to approval, a different and shorter metric, jumped from 117 days to 162 days this week, a 45-day move that triggered a 2.84 standard-deviation outlier flag against the prior 12-week trend.

The total wait series tells a story of slow but steady pressure. From 191 days in the week of July 27 to 196 days this week, the median has drifted upward by 5 days over 11 weeks. The 75th percentile (p75) is more volatile: it ranged from 198 to 310 days across the same window, indicating a widening upper tail for slower cases. Against the same week in 2025, the 35-day gap is the largest in the 12-week comparison. Eight percent of this week's approvals waited more than a year from filing, and only 2% cleared within 45 days, underscoring how concentrated approvals are in the 190-to-210-day range.

The time from the last status update to approval serves as a secondary lens on pace, measuring the final stretch of adjudication (the USCIS decision step where approval, denial, or a request for more evidence is issued) rather than the full filing-to-approval span. At 162 days this week, it is the highest reading in the 12-week window and far above the summer low of 63 days in mid-August. The 8-week slope of +11.5 days per week with an R² of 0.72 points to a moderately confident upward trajectory over that interval. One important limit: all 361 approvals this week came through MSC (the National Benefits Center in Lee's Summit, Missouri), so this series reflects a single processing location. What appears to be a system-wide trend may in part reflect MSC-specific routing or workload conditions that the data does not explain.

The statistical outlier flag places this week's final-stage median 2.84 standard deviations above the prior 12-week trend, computed against the trailing 12-week baseline. Single-week readings at that distance from the trend line have, in prior weeks for this form, occasionally reversed the following week. The broader upward pattern since late August, however, predates this week's reading by several weeks: the median has risen from 63 days (W33) through 88 (W38), 130 (W39), and 117 (W41) before reaching 162. A one-week reversal would not erase that sequence.

One sharp week does not make a trend, but a trend already in progress makes one sharp week harder to set aside.