I-360 Final-Stage Wait Jumps 27 Days in a Preliminary Early Read
The week of Aug 31 produced a tentative 138-day median for I-360 petitions, a single-week rise that triggered a 3.93σ anomaly flag. The sample is early and the form is volatile; whether this reading holds will be clearer in the next one to two weeks.
A preliminary read for the week of Aug 31 puts the I-360 final-stage wait at 138 days, up 27 days from 111 days the prior week and about 37 days above the 12-week trailing average of 101 days. The internal anomaly detector fired at 3.93σ, well past the 2σ threshold for a statistical outlier. The sample stands at 478 approved cases, roughly 50 to 70 percent of the form's typical weekly volume, so the number could shift as more approvals are recorded. The same week last year posted 153 days, meaning this week's preliminary figure, if it holds, would still be about 15 days better than the year-ago comparison.
- The I-360 final-stage median rose to a preliminary 138 days the week of Aug 31, a +27-day week-over-week jump and the highest reading in the past eight weeks.
- The anomaly detector fired at 3.93σ above the 8-week regression line, well above the 2σ threshold, on a sample of only 478 cases.
- RFE (Request for Evidence)-stamped cases cleared in a median of 18 days this week, versus 106 days for non-RFE cases, an inversion the rfe_fast flag captured.
- The total active I-360 pending population grew by 5,522 cases (+4.3%) in the 28-day window ending September 7, reaching 133,433 active cases across all filing cohorts.
- The 4-week forecast carries a ±35-day band per week, reflecting an R² of only 0.38 on the 8-week slope; the directional signal is upward but the scatter is too wide to support a single-number projection.
138 days: a one-week spike that tripped the anomaly detector
The final-stage wait for I-360 petitions rose to a preliminary 138 days the week of Aug 31, a 27-day jump from 111 days the week prior. The sample behind this reading is 478 approved cases, roughly 50 to 70 percent of the form's typical weekly volume, so the figure could shift meaningfully as additional approvals are recorded over the next several days. Against a 12-week trailing average of 101 days, this week's preliminary read sits about 37 days above trend. Treat it as an early signal, not a settled data point.
The internal anomaly detector flagged this week's reading at 3.93σ above the 8-week regression line. Readings above 2σ are treated as statistical outliers; 3.93σ places this week well into that territory. A single-week deviation of this magnitude is often noise, and the low sample count amplifies that caveat: when fewer cases are approved in a given week, the median reflects who happened to clear rather than a broad shift in adjudication (the USCIS decision step where approval, denial, or an evidence request is issued) pace. The next one to two weeks of data will be the clearest test of whether this represents a real shift.
The 12-week backdrop: a volatile form, now at the high end of its range
Over the past 12 weeks, I-360 medians have moved between 31 days (W27, Jun 29) and 169 days (W25, Jun 15), a range that reflects the form's high week-to-week variability rather than a smooth trend. The 8-week regression slope is +5.2 days per week, but R² is only 0.38, meaning roughly 62 percent of the week-to-week variance is unexplained scatter. The directional drift is upward, but the signal-to-noise ratio is low: a flat week next week would be fully consistent with the same model that produced this week's reading.
The same week last year posted 153 days on a sample of 222 cases. This week's preliminary 138-day read, if it holds, would be 15 days better than that comparison, and the 3-year same-week average is also 153 days. Despite the week's upward move, the year-over-year picture remains modestly favorable. I-360 is a multi-purpose petition covering categories such as VAWA self-petitions, Special Immigrant Juvenile (SIJ) cases, and religious worker petitions, and the mix of sub-categories can shift medians sharply from week to week independent of any change in overall adjudication pace.
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