I-360 Final-Stage Waits Are Down Sharply from Last Year, but Ticking Up in a Preliminary Early Read
The week of Aug. 17 brought a 108-day median — 35 days below the same week last year — yet an 11-day week-over-week jump and an 8-week upward slope suggest the improvement may be leveling off.
On a preliminary sample of 495 cases this week, I-360 final-stage waits came in at a median of 108 days, down 35 days (24.6%) from the same week last year's 143-day reading. That year-over-year comparison is genuinely favorable. At the same time, the median rose 11 days from last week's 96, and the 8-week slope has been climbing at roughly +7.4 days per week. Both signals are real and point in different directions. The preliminary sample is roughly half the typical weekly volume, so this week's jump may partly reflect who happened to be approved rather than a settled shift, but the upward slope predates this week's thin count.
- The preliminary median of 108 days this week is 35 days below the same-week reading a year ago (143 days, n=91), a 24.6% year-over-year improvement.
- A single-week jump of +11 days (from 96 days last week to 108 this week) extends an 8-week slope of +7.4 days per week (R² = 0.45), though the weak fit means the direction is apparent rather than confirmed.
- An anomaly flag fired for unusually fast RFE (Request for Evidence) clearance: cases that received and responded to an RFE cleared in a median of 20 days, compared to 118 days for cases with no RFE — a 6x speed ratio that likely reflects a batch clearance event.
- The live active backlog stands at 131,623 cases, up 9,337 (7.6%) over the past 28 days, with 40,813 cases sitting at the 'Case Was Received' stage at a median of 193 days already elapsed.
- The 4-week mechanical forecast carries a wide band of ~71 to 181 days through mid-September, reflecting R² of 0.45 — the uncertainty range spans more ground than the entire year-over-year improvement.
Better than last year, but the trend is bending up
This week's data carries an early-read caution: only 495 cases were approved, roughly half the typical weekly volume of around 800, so the numbers are more tentative than usual. With that caveat in mind, the median final-stage wait came in at 108 days — 35 days below the 143-day reading for the same week last year, and 24.6% lower year over year. That is a meaningful improvement by any measure. Yet the median also rose 11 days from last week's 96, a single-week move of +11.6%. Both things are true: the form is processing meaningfully faster than it was a year ago, and the most recent weeks have been creeping in the other direction.
Eight weeks of slow creep upward
The 8-week slope for I-360 final-stage waits sits at +7.4 days per week, which would add roughly 30 days over a full month if it continued unchecked. The regression's R² of 0.45 means the direction appears to be upward, but the fit is moderate enough that week-to-week noise can obscure the signal. The 12-week range ran from 33 days to 177 days — a spread of 144 days — so individual weekly readings on this form are subject to more variability than on forms with tighter distributions. The 12-week trailing average of 114 days offers a steadier reference point than any single week.
The Jun. 29 week (median: 33 days, n=540) illustrates the volatility. A reading that low almost certainly reflects a concentrated clearance event rather than a sustained change in processing speed; the form returned to the 75 to 98-day range within two weeks. Because the 8-week regression window begins near that trough, the slope calculation is sensitive to a starting point that may not represent the underlying pace. The current uptick is real in that the weekly medians have risen from 75 days in late July to 108 days now, but the noisy history means the true underlying direction is genuinely uncertain.
On a form where weekly medians have run from 33 to 177 days in three months, a single week's reading tells only part of the story.
Preview
Unlock the full analysis for your case
See the complete outlook, a personalised lookup against this week's cohort, and your estimated approval window.
- Full premium analysis: outlook, what it means for you, and implications.
- Personalised case lookup against this week's cohort, with percentile and remaining days.
- Estimated approval window mapped to your filing date.
Cancel anytime. Plans from $5.99/month.