Approval Trends Brief
Issue 30Published Jul 20, 2026
Special Immigrant Petition · Week 30
I-360 · Special immigrant petition

I-360 Final-Stage Wait Falls 83 Days While Pending Backlog Nearly Doubles

Week 30, 2026: The median final-stage wait for I-360 approvals dropped to 88 days, the lowest in the 12-week window, even as active pending cases grew 96% over the same period. The two signals point in opposite directions.

The median final-stage wait for I-360 approvals fell to 88 days this week, down from 171 days in early May, a drop of 83 days across roughly 12 weeks. That puts this week's reading 53 days below the 12-week trailing average of 141 days, based on 816 approved cases. At the same time, the active pending backlog grew from roughly 12,000 cases to 23,656 cases, a 96% increase over 81 days. The fast clearance reflects cases already deep in the adjudication (USCIS's case decision step) queue. For those filing today, the picture is considerably slower.

Key findings
  1. The I-360 final-stage wait fell 83 days in roughly 12 weeks, from 171 days in early May to 88 days this week, with the National Benefits Center (MSC) driving nearly all of the movement at a slope of -14.0 days per week.
  2. Active pending cases rose 96% (+11,584 cases) between May 7 and July 27, 2026, reaching 23,656 total, meaning new filings are accumulating faster than approvals are clearing.
  3. Cases that received an RFE (Request for Evidence) and submitted a response are clearing with a median of 21 days, versus 161 days for cases without one, a 7.87x ratio that fired the rfe_fast anomaly flag this week.
  4. Of cases filed in March 2026, now 21 weeks old, only 1.5% have been approved; the February 2026 filing-month group at 25 weeks sits at just 2.2%.
  5. The 4-week forecast carries a residual standard deviation of 32 days and a band width of roughly ±49 days; the projected range for the week of July 27 runs from ~25 to 123 days, making any single-number projection unreliable.
01 / I-360 · Week 30, 2026

83 days faster, twice as many cases waiting

88days
The median final-stage wait for I-360 approvals this week, down from 171 days at the May peak, a drop of 83 days in roughly 12 weeks.12-week trailing average: 141 days. WoW change: -27 days (-23.6%).

The I-360 median final-stage wait has fallen 83 days since the week of May 4, when it stood at 171 days. This week's reading of 88 days, drawn from 816 approved cases, sits 53 days below the 12-week trailing average of 141 days. The 8-week regression slope is -13.9 days per week, consistent with a sustained acceleration rather than a single-week fluctuation. The 25th percentile (p25) this week is 83 days and the 75th percentile (p75) is 93 days, a narrow band that reflects week-to-week stability in who is being approved.

Figure 1
I-360 final-stage wait medians have fallen sharply over the last 12 weeks, dropping from a peak of 177 days in late May to 88 days this week.
Median days from last reported status to approval, with the p25 to p75 band.
200200150150100100505000DaysMay 4May 4May 11May 11May 18May 18May 25May 25Jun 1Jun 1Jun 8Jun 8Jun 15Jun 15Jun 22Jun 22Jun 29Jun 29Jul 6Jul 6Jul 13Jul 13Jul 20Jul 20Forecast
p25 to p75
Weekly median
Forecast
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W19 to 2026-W30. n = 816 (this week).

The counterweight to that acceleration is harder to miss in the backlog data. Active pending cases rose from roughly 12,072 to 23,656 between May 7 and July 27, a 96% increase (+11,584 cases) over 81 days. Filing-month groups from February through June 2026 account for nearly all of that growth, with the May 2026 group alone adding 3,655 active cases to the pipeline. The arithmetic is straightforward: new cases are entering the queue faster than approvals are clearing them. The current fast clearance benefits applicants already deep in adjudication; those filing in 2026 are joining a much longer line.

02 / Processing mechanics

Where the speed is coming from: MSC doing the heavy lifting

MSC (the National Benefits Center, USCIS's facility in Lee's Summit, MO) processed all 816 approved cases this week, posting a median of 88 days and an 8-week slope of -14.0 days per week, matching the overall trend almost exactly. WAC (California Service Center, Laguna Niguel, CA) had 23 cases at a median of 136 days, and LIN (Nebraska Service Center) had 20 cases at a median of 8 days; both carry flat slopes and sample sizes too thin to move the aggregate. The activity log supports the MSC picture: MSC recorded 10,328 status transitions in the last 30 days, with 'decisionIssued' as the dominant status, in line with a high-throughput decision push. Case mix differs across these centers, so the comparison is structural rather than a performance verdict.

Figure 2
The largest share of active I-360 cases sits at the 'Case Was Received' stage with a median of 192 days, while cases reaching the decision stage are clearing in roughly 1 day.
Weighted-average weekly p25 / p50 / p75 of the final-stage wait, last 12 weeks. Spread reflects week-to-week stability, not raw case distribution.
Last status before approval
Cases
Distribution (days)
Median
received
7,695
p25 193 · p75 196
195 d
decision
1,387
p25 1 · p75 3
1 d
rfe_response
655
p25 4 · p75 32
8 d
notice
353
p25 70 · p75 214
165 d
others
222
p25 2 · p75 22
3 d
rfe
197
p25 34 · p75 82
61 d
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W19 to 2026-W30. n = 7,695 (received stage).

The stage duration data (from the Stage durations, 30-day raw window) puts the bottleneck in plain view. Cases at the 'Case Was Received' status, which account for 57.4% of the active pipeline across 35,794 cases, show a median of 192 days, with a p25 of 181 days and a p75 of 201 days. Cases clearing this week were already well past that stage. The much larger group still sitting at intake is likely months from reaching the same point in adjudication, regardless of how fast the current approval pace appears.

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About this brief

Approval Trends Brief is a weekly data report from the MyCasesHub Data Team. It uses live USCIS case status updates from millions of cases tracked through MyCasesHub. Briefs are issued every Monday and revised whenever a material trend change is detected.

Methodology and resources

  • Source: USCIS case status updates collected through MyCasesHub user activity.
  • Approval marker: first occurrence of approval, card produced, or oath ceremony status.
  • Days to approval: time from a case's last non-approval status update to that marker.
  • Outlier rule: cases with a measured wait above 1,095 days are excluded.
  • Sample size threshold: cohorts with fewer than 100 cases are flagged as low confidence.
  • How we compute these numbers·I-360 only