I-140 Final-Stage Wait Falls to a Preliminary 12-Week Low of 21 Days
An early read for the week of May 4 puts the median final-stage wait at 21 days, the lowest point in three months and well below the trailing 12-week average. The sample is preliminary and the number may shift, but the directional improvement has been consistent for eight weeks.
The I-140 immigrant petition posted a preliminary median final-stage wait of 21 days for the week of May 4, down 8 days from last week's 29 days and 16 days below the 12-week trailing average of 37 days. The word "preliminary" matters here: only 1,044 cases are in this week's sample, roughly half to two-thirds the typical weekly count, so the figure may move as more approvals are logged. That caveat noted, the eight-week downward slope of -2.6 days per week is consistent across the full trend window, and no anomaly flags fired. For applicants tracking their I-140 status, the direction is favorable.
- The preliminary median for the week of May 4 is 21 days, the lowest reading in the 12-week window that opened at 58 days in mid-February.
- The 8-week regression slope is -2.6 days per week (R² = 0.53), pointing to a sustained directional improvement, though moderate confidence limits the precision of any extrapolation.
- RFE (Request for Evidence)-stamped cases and non-RFE cases cleared at nearly identical speeds this week: 36 days vs. 35 days, a gap of just 1 day.
- The three largest stage buckets in the active pipeline hold a combined 154,381 cases, with the majority at the 'Case Is Still Being Processed' status (105,899 cases, 62.7% of the observed pipeline).
- The total active backlog grew by 2,169 cases (+6.5%) over the six-day window from May 4 to May 10, driven largely by April 2026 intake, a watch point even as the weekly trend points down.
A 12-week low, with a caveat
The week of May 4 produced a preliminary median of 21 days, the lowest reading since the 12-week tracking window opened at 58 days on Feb 16. The 12-week trailing average is 37 days, putting this week's figure 16 days below that baseline. The word "preliminary" carries real weight: this week's sample of 1,044 approvals is roughly half to two-thirds the size of a typical week, which ranged from about 1,169 to 1,697 cases in the prior 11 weeks. As more approvals are recorded, the median can shift. The directional signal is positive, but the final number for this week is not yet settled.
Eight weeks of quiet improvement
Over the past eight weeks, the median appears to be on a steady downward path, with a regression slope of -2.6 days per week. The R² of 0.53 is in the moderate range, meaning the direction is reasonably consistent but week-to-week noise is visible. At that pace, the median has shed roughly 21 days since the improving trend took hold. The 25th percentile (p25) this week stands at 14 days, meaning the faster quarter of approved cases cleared in under two weeks. The 75th percentile (p75) compressed to 90 days, well below the 185-day p75 recorded at the start of the window in February.
Over eight weeks, the final-stage wait has dropped by roughly 21 days, a consistent directional move even if week-to-week precision is limited.
RFE cases are not falling behind
Cases that received an RFE (Request for Evidence), USCIS's standard follow-up letter asking for missing documents, cleared at a median of 36 days in final-stage wait this week. Cases without an RFE cleared at 35 days. The gap is just 1 day, a speed ratio of 0.98x. That near-parity is notable: in prior periods the RFE-response group has typically taken longer to clear once a response is submitted. The convergence may reflect a batch of relatively recent, fast-moving RFE responses in this week's approvals, though the data does not identify the mechanism. An RFE is not a denial signal; most I-140 cases that receive one are still approved.
0.98x RFE and plain processing cohorts clear at a similar pace.
Preview
Unlock the rest of this brief
Subscribers see the full analysis, including detailed forecasts and personalised case lookup.
- Full premium analysis: outlook, what it means for you, and implications.
- Personalised case lookup against this week's cohort, with percentile and remaining days.
- Estimated approval window mapped to your filing date.