I-131 Medians Fell 16 Days This Week, but the 12-Week Rise Continues
The week of September 14 brought a welcome dip to 285 days, yet the 8-week slope of +8.5 days per week and a median 36% above the same week last year frame that dip as a pause, not a turn.
I-131 travel document approvals this week settled at a median of 285 days from last reported status to approval, down 16 days from last week's 301. That single-week relief is real, but it sits inside a 12-week window that has ranged from 152 days in late June to 324 days in late August. The same-week-last-year reading was 210 days, meaning this week's median is 75 days higher than a year ago, a 36% increase. The 8-week slope of +8.5 days per week has not reversed, and the four-week forecast projects a range of ~237 to 376 days through mid-October if the current pace continues.
- The I-131 final-stage-wait median fell 16 days week over week to 285 days, a one-week dip inside a broader upward curve that reached 324 days as recently as August 31.
- The 8-week trend is rising at +8.5 days per week (R²=0.39), adding roughly 68 days to medians over the past two months.
- An rfe_fast anomaly fired this week: RFE (Request for Evidence) cases cleared in a median of 24 days, compared with 269 days for plain-processed cases, an 11-to-1 ratio.
- LIN (Nebraska Service Center) posted a median of 393 days this week on 1,789 approvals, while IOE (e-filed cases) cleared in 115 days on 803 approvals, case mix and routing differ across centers.
- Cases filed in April 2026 are 25 weeks old and only 8.1% of that filing-month group have been approved, with roughly 39,869 of 45,982 filed cases still active.
One good week inside a bad trend
The median final-stage wait for I-131 approvals this week came in at 285 days, down 16 days from last week's 301. At first glance, that is welcome movement. But the same week last year, the median sat at 210 days, meaning this week's reading is still 75 days, or 36%, above the year-ago level. And as recently as the week of June 29, the median was 152 days. The 16-day drop is a genuine week-over-week improvement, but the distance between where we are now and where we were three months ago makes clear that one week of relief has not changed the larger picture.
Across the full 12-week window, the trailing average is 254 days, and the weekly readings have ranged from 152 to 324 days. This week's 285 sits above that trailing average, not below it. The week-over-week dip is the most recent move in a series that has seen swings of 41, 47, and 70 days in a single week. A single 16-day decline, while the largest drop in recent weeks, does not yet signal a change in the underlying direction.
The slope hasn't turned yet
The 8-week regression slope for I-131 is +8.5 days per week, with an R² of 0.39. The R² is moderate, meaning weekly readings are noisy around the trend line, but the directional signal is meaningful. At that pace, the trend added roughly 68 days to medians over the two months from mid-July through mid-September. The 16-day dip this week reverses less than two weeks of that accumulation. For the improvement to matter in structural terms, the slope itself would need to turn negative and hold there across several consecutive weeks.
One week of relief is real, but the slope has to turn for the improvement to hold.
The week of July 13 (W29) was the moment the trend visibly shifted, with the median jumping to 286 days. Since then, weekly readings have mostly ranged between 257 and 324 days. This week's 285 sits in the lower part of that range, which is a relatively better result, but it remains inside the same elevated band that has characterized the past two months.
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