I-131 Final-Stage Wait Reaches 326 Days, Up 82% From Last Year
The travel-document median has hit its highest point in the 12-week window, driven by a steep 8-week acceleration. The active backlog grew by 8,021 cases in 28 days, consistent with intake outpacing adjudication.
The median final-stage wait for I-131 travel document approvals reached 326 days the week of August 31, up 22 days from the prior week and 82% above the same week last year (179 days, n=167). The 12-week trailing average sits at 234 days, meaning most of the climb has arrived in the past two months. An overall active backlog of 473,891 pending cases grew by 8,021 cases (up 1.7%) over the 28 days ending September 7, and filing-month cohorts (groups of cases filed in the same month) are clearing at rates below 7% even after 22 weeks. The 8-week slope of +8.8 days per week reflects a sustained upward trend, not a single-week fluctuation.
- The I-131 final-stage wait median reached 326 days the week of Aug 31, the highest reading in the 12-week window and up 82% from 179 days the same week last year.
- The active backlog grew by 8,021 cases (+1.7%) over 28 days, consistent with intake exceeding adjudication (USCIS's decision step) throughput.
- LIN (Nebraska Service Center) posted a 407-day median across 1,611 approvals this week, while IOE cases cleared in 169 days across 580 approvals, a 238-day difference in the same reporting week.
- An rfe_fast anomaly flag fired: RFE (Request for Evidence) cases posted a median of just 31 days vs. 246 days for non-RFE cases, an inverted pattern that likely reflects a batch of responses clearing together.
- The 4-week forecast carries a wide confidence band (~264 to 404 days by the week of Sep 7) reflecting an R² of only 0.31 on the 8-week regression.
326 days and climbing
The week of August 31, the median final-stage wait for I-131 travel document approvals stood at 326 days, compared with 179 days the same week a year earlier. That 82% year-over-year increase did not arrive gradually. The 12-week trailing average is 234 days, meaning the bulk of the climb has come in recent weeks. The 8-week regression slope of +8.8 days per week, measured across the 2,443 cases approved this week, reflects an acceleration that has been building since late July.
Intake is outpacing adjudication
The filing-month cohort (the group of cases filed in the same calendar month) burndown data shows how slowly recent applications are clearing. Cases filed in April 2026 are now 22 weeks old, yet only 6.1% of that cohort's roughly 45,800 total cases have been approved as of this snapshot. The July 2026 cohort, at 9 weeks old, is 3.6% approved out of about 19,600 total cases. These are cumulative clearance rates since the filing month, not monthly flow counts; a low rate for recent cohorts reflects how early those cases are in the queue.
The overall active backlog of pending I-131 cases across all filing cohorts stood at 473,891 as of September 7, up 8,021 cases (a 1.7% increase) over the prior 28 days. This figure covers a much broader population than the newest cohort rows above, which track only the most recent filing months. The growth direction is consistent with intake exceeding adjudication throughput during this period. Among more mature filing groups, the April 2026 cohort shed the most active cases, with a net reduction of 653 over that same 28-day window.
A 238-day gap between processing pathways
LIN (Nebraska Service Center) issued 1,611 of this week's 2,443 approvals at a 407-day median, with a 0% transfer share, meaning its population is relatively uniform in case origin. IOE (electronically filed cases) processed 580 approvals at a 169-day median, also with 0% transfer share. WAC (California Service Center, in Laguna Niguel, CA) contributed 107 approvals at a 165-day median. MSC (National Benefits Center, in Lee's Summit, MO) posted a 215-day median, but 48% of its 79 cases were transfer-touched, so its figure reflects a mixed population. Because receipt prefix records where a case was intake-stamped rather than where it is currently processed, the center-level differences here do not indicate that where someone filed will determine how long they wait. SRC's reported slope of -200.5 days per week across only 66 cases is almost certainly a small-sample artifact and should not be read as a directional signal.
Preview
Unlock the full analysis for your case
See the complete outlook, a personalised lookup against this week's cohort, and your estimated approval window.
- Full premium analysis: outlook, what it means for you, and implications.
- Personalised case lookup against this week's cohort, with percentile and remaining days.
- Estimated approval window mapped to your filing date.
Cancel anytime. Plans from $5.99/month.