I-131 Median Falls 14 Days, but Center Identity Shapes the Real Experience

The I-131 median for the week of June 8 came in at 184 days, down 14 days from 198 days the prior week. That is the most improvement in a single week since mid-April, and it brings the reading below the 12-week trailing average of 189 days. But an `uneven_centers` anomaly flag fired with a value of 322.23, and the underlying numbers explain why. IOE processed cases with a median of 60 days this week; LIN processed cases with a median of 388 days. The spread between those two centers is 328 days, meaning an applicant whose case sits at LIN is experiencing a reality almost entirely disconnected from the 184-day headline. The aggregate median, in this instance, is an average of two very different approval environments.

Four service centers contributed approvals this week, and their medians span a range that the headline number cannot convey. IOE, which handled 423 of the 870 approved cases this week, posted a median of 60 days and carries the strongest trend in the data: a slope of -8.6 days per week over the past 8 weeks with an R² of 0.75, indicating a confident, sustained improvement. WAC (148 cases) sits at 140 days with a slope of -5.2 days per week, though the R² of 0.38 is moderate, so the direction is real but the week-to-week path has been uneven. LIN (280 cases) is a different picture: at 388 days with a slope of just -0.8 days per week and an R² of 0.02, it is essentially flat — and far slower than any other center. The National Benefits Center (MSC, also called Lee's Summit) posted 302 days with a slope of +21.9 days per week and an R² of 0.55, meaning it is moving in the wrong direction with some consistency. MSC's sample is only 19 cases this week, which is too thin to treat as a confirmed signal; another week or two of data is needed before drawing firm conclusions. Still, the directional change merits attention. Note that each center handles a different mix of I-131 subtypes (Advance Parole, Reentry Permit, Refugee Travel Document), so these medians reflect both processing pace and case-mix differences that are not separately identified in the current data.

The 12-week arc for I-131 is not a smooth line. The median opened at 204 days in late March, then fell sharply to 136 days in the week of April 6 and held near 137 days the following week. It then rose through April and into May, reaching 240 days in the week of May 4 before declining over the following five weeks to this week's 184-day reading. The 8-week slope of -6.6 days per week with an R² of 0.56 suggests a real directional improvement, but the moderate R² signals that the fit is not tight: the path from May's high to today has included two partial reversals (May 18 back up to 193 days and June 1 back to 198 days before this week's drop). The most accurate characterization of the recent trajectory is a recovery from the May reading, not a clean or sustained deceleration. A single-week move back above 190 days would not be inconsistent with this trend.

The improvement since May is real, but the path has been uneven enough that a single-week reversal would not be surprising.