Approval Trends Brief
Issue 41Published Oct 5, 2026
Family Petition · Week 41
I-130 · Family petition

I-130 Petitions Approved This Week Waited a Median of 190 Days, Up 37% From a Year Ago

Cases approved the week of Oct 5 waited a median of 190 days from filing, 51 days longer than the same week in 2025. The processing queue has been moving in the opposite direction for months, creating a genuinely mixed picture.

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I-130 petitions approved the week of Oct 5, 2026 waited a median of 190 days from filing to approval, compared with 139 days the same week last year, a 37% year-over-year increase. At the same time, the time from the last status update to approval has fallen from 104 days a year ago to 38 days this week, a 66-day improvement in the final stretch of processing. These two numbers measure different things and are moving in opposite directions. As of Oct 13, 755,152 cases remain pending across all filing months, up from 735,791 four weeks earlier. None of the wait figures in this brief describe those pending cases; every median here reflects only cases that have already been approved.

Key findings
  1. Cases approved the week of Oct 5 waited a median of 190 days from filing, up 37% from 139 days the same week last year.
  2. The time from the last status update to approval was 38 days this week, down from 104 days the same week in 2025, a 66-day improvement.
  3. 27% of cases approved this week (940 of 3,444 with a known filing date) waited more than a year from filing to approval.
  4. RFE (Request for Evidence) cases cleared with a final-stage median of 19 days, faster than the 47-day median for plain-processing cases, an inversion from the typical pattern.
  5. The May 2026 filing-month group is 21.0% approved at 23 weeks of age; cases filed in September 2026 show effectively no approvals yet, consistent with normal cohort (a group of cases) maturation.
01 / I-130 · Week of Oct 5, 2026

190 days to approval, a year ago it was 139

190days
Median total wait from filing to approval for I-130 petitions approved the week of Oct 5, 2026. Half of those cases cleared faster than this figure; half took longer.Up from 201 days last week; 139 days the same week last year.

I-130 petitions approved the week of Oct 5 waited a median of 190 days from the date USCIS received the case to its approval, compared with 139 days the same week last year, a 37% gap. The 25th percentile (p25) sat at 126 days and the 75th percentile (p75) at 387 days, reflecting a wide spread across approved cases. As of Oct 13, 755,152 I-130 cases remain pending across all filing months, up from 735,791 twenty-eight days earlier. Every wait figure in this brief is measured on cases that were already approved; none of them describes how long those 755,152 pending cases have waited.

02 / Trend · 12 weeks

Two numbers moving in opposite directions

Figure 1
The 12-week final-stage trend shows a clear downward slope from a mid-summer high of 54 days toward this week's 38-day reading, with last year's overlay running substantially above throughout.
Median days from last reported status to approval, with the p25 to p75 band.
1201201001008080606040402020DaysJul 20Jul 20Jul 27Jul 27Aug 3Aug 3Aug 10Aug 10Aug 17Aug 17Aug 24Aug 24Aug 31Aug 31Sep 7Sep 7Sep 14Sep 14Sep 21Sep 21Sep 28Sep 28Oct 5Oct 5Forecast
p25 to p75
Weekly median
Forecast
Last year
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. Jul 20–Oct 5, 2026. n = 3,410 to 5,558 per week.

Over the 12-week window from Jul 20 through Oct 5, the total wait from filing ranged from 179 days (the week of Jul 20) to 221 days (Aug 17), with this week's 190 days near the lower end of that range and down 11 days from last week's 201. The final-stage wait, measured as time from the last status update to approval, tells a different story: 38 days this week against 104 days the same week last year, a 66-day improvement. These two metrics measure different things. The total wait counts from filing and reflects the age of cases clearing the queue now; the time from the last status update to approval measures only the last leg, how quickly USCIS moved a case from its most recent reported status to the approval decision.

Final-stage wait · This week
38days median
p25 30 d / p75 62 d / n = 3,410
Final-stage wait · Same week last year
104days median
n = 5,703
03 / Context · What the gap means

Older cases clearing now, newer cases waiting longer

Cases approved this week were filed a median of 190 days ago. The elevated total wait is consistent with a large group of older cases, filed during a high-volume period, now reaching the front of the queue. That pattern would produce a higher total-wait median even if current adjudication (the USCIS case decision step) is running faster than before. It is also possible that case-complexity mix plays a role; the data does not let us distinguish among these explanations. What is clear is that 940 of the 3,444 cases with a known filing date, or 27%, waited more than a year from filing to approval.

The active pending count grew by 19,361 cases over the 28 days ending Oct 13, reaching 755,152. A growing backlog of pending cases generally sustains upward pressure on future total-wait medians, because older cases accumulate and eventually clear. Whether that pressure builds or eases depends on the pace of new filings relative to approvals in the coming weeks.

USCIS is moving cases through the final stretch faster than it did a year ago, but the cases arriving at that stretch have been waiting longer to get there.
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About this brief

Approval Trends Brief is a weekly data report from the MyCasesHub Data Team. It uses live USCIS case status updates from millions of cases tracked through MyCasesHub. Briefs are issued every Monday and revised whenever a material trend change is detected.

Methodology and resources

  • Source: USCIS case status updates collected through MyCasesHub user activity.
  • Approval marker: first occurrence of approval, card produced, or oath ceremony status.
  • Total wait (headline figure when at least 100 approvals that week, and at least half of them, have a known filing date): days from the date USCIS received the case to that marker. When the received date is not shown, it is estimated from neighbouring receipt numbers.
  • Final-stage wait (trend charts): days from a case's last status update before approval to that marker. It is shorter than the total wait.
  • All waits are measured on approved cases. USCIS's published processing time counts the time within which 80% of a category's cases were completed, so it is not the same statistic.
  • Outlier rule: final-stage waits above 1,095 days and total waits above 3,650 days are excluded.
  • Sample size threshold: cohorts with fewer than 100 cases are flagged as low confidence.
  • How we compute these numbers·I-130 only