Approval Trends Brief
Issue 38Published Sep 14, 2026
Family Petition · Week 38
I-130 · Family petition

I-130 Final-Stage Waits Are Running 60 Days Shorter Than a Year Ago

The week of September 14, 2026 marks a full year of sustained improvement in I-130 processing. The 43-day final-stage median is less than half what applicants faced in the same week of 2025, and the summer trend has been broadly flat rather than drifting in either direction.

Waiting on your own I-130 case?Track it free

I-130 petitions are clearing in a final-stage median of 43 days this week, compared with 104 days in the same week last year, a reduction of about 60 days or 58%. The 12-week trailing average sits at 44 days, confirming that this week is not an outlier but part of a stable, lower-wait regime that has held all summer. Based on 5,315 approvals this week, the sample is large enough to treat the number with confidence. For applicants who have heard from peers that I-130 used to take many months, the processing environment has changed substantially.

Key findings
  1. The I-130 final-stage median this week is 43 days, down from 104 days in the same week last year, a 58% year-over-year reduction.
  2. The 12-week trailing average is 44 days, confirming the improvement is a sustained regime, not a one-week result.
  3. Weekly medians have ranged from 25 to 54 days over the past 12 weeks, with an 8-week slope of -0.9 days per week (R² = 0.22), indicating a flat and noisy-stable pattern rather than a directional trend.
  4. An RFE (Request for Evidence) anomaly flag fired this week: cases with an RFE response cleared in a median of 18 days, faster than the 45-day median for plain cases, an artifact of batch timing rather than a policy shift.
  5. The overall active I-130 pending backlog stands at 737,541 cases, up about 23,700 over the past 28 days, consistent with new filings continuing to enter the queue faster than approvals clear them.
01 / I-130 · Week 38, 2026

A year ago it took 104 days. Now it takes 43.

43days
The final-stage median for I-130 approvals this week landed at 43 days, the midpoint of a summer-long range that has held well below last year's pace.Same week in 2025: 104 days (n = 7,020). Year-over-year: -58%.

This week's median of 43 days compares with 104 days in the same week of 2025, a reduction of about 60 days. The 12-week trailing average is 44 days, meaning the current week is essentially at the summer norm rather than an isolated dip. The sample of 5,315 approvals this week is large and gives the number statistical weight. Applicants who filed in the past year are navigating an adjudication (the USCIS case-decision step) environment that has improved considerably from where it stood 12 months ago.

Figure 1
The 12-week trend shows I-130 final-stage medians holding well below last year's readings across every comparable week.
Median days from last reported status to approval, with the p25 to p75 band.
120120100100808060604040202000DaysJun 29Jun 29Jul 6Jul 6Jul 13Jul 13Jul 20Jul 20Jul 27Jul 27Aug 3Aug 3Aug 10Aug 10Aug 17Aug 17Aug 24Aug 24Aug 31Aug 31Sep 7Sep 7Sep 14Sep 14Forecast
p25 to p75
Weekly median
Forecast
Last year
Source: MyCasesHub case-status updates. 2026-W27 through 2026-W38. n = 4,171 to 5,315 per week.
02

Flat all summer, with some week-to-week noise

The 8-week slope is -0.9 days per week, but with an R² of only 0.22, there is no reliable directional trend to report. What the data shows instead is a noisy-stable pattern: medians that bounce around a roughly fixed center without accumulating in either direction. Over the past 12 weeks, the weekly reading has ranged from 25 days (week of June 29) to 54 days (week of August 17), a span of 29 days, yet the trailing average has barely shifted. The +3-day move this week, from 40 days in the week of September 7 to 43 days now, falls comfortably within that normal oscillation. The week of August 17 peaked at 54 days and the week of September 7 troughed at 40 days; neither of those readings proved to be a turning point, and this week's modest uptick appears to follow the same pattern.

Weekly medians have ranged 29 days over the summer, yet the average has barely moved: the oscillation is the pattern, not a warning.
For subscribers

Preview

Unlock the full analysis for your case

See the complete outlook, a personalised lookup against this week's cohort, and your estimated approval window.

  • Full premium analysis: outlook, what it means for you, and implications.
  • Personalised case lookup against this week's cohort, with percentile and remaining days.
  • Estimated approval window mapped to your filing date.
See plans from $5.99/mo

Cancel anytime. Plans from $5.99/month.

About this brief

Approval Trends Brief is a weekly data report from the MyCasesHub Data Team. It uses live USCIS case status updates from millions of cases tracked through MyCasesHub. Briefs are issued every Monday and revised whenever a material trend change is detected.

Methodology and resources

  • Source: USCIS case status updates collected through MyCasesHub user activity.
  • Approval marker: first occurrence of approval, card produced, or oath ceremony status.
  • Days to approval: time from a case's last non-approval status update to that marker.
  • Outlier rule: cases with a measured wait above 1,095 days are excluded.
  • Sample size threshold: cohorts with fewer than 100 cases are flagged as low confidence.
  • How we compute these numbers·I-130 only