I-130 Final-Stage Wait Falls to 31 Days, Triggering a -3.21σ Anomaly Flag

The I-130 final-stage median dropped to 31 days the week of June 22, a 45-day move from last week's 76. The anomaly detector fired an `outlier_week_low` flag at z = -3.21 against the prior 4-week trailing mean, placing this week's reading below the full 12-week range of 54 to 92 days. The sample of 4,859 approved cases is well above the threshold for reliable weekly readings, so sample thinness is not the explanation. The 12-week trailing average sits at 66 days, more than double this week's figure.

The metric this brief tracks is the final-stage wait: the time from a case's last reported status to approval, not the full filing-to-approval span. A shorter final-stage wait can mean cases are moving through adjudication (the USCIS decision step where approval, denial, or an evidence request is issued) more quickly, or it can reflect a different composition of cases reaching that last status in a given week. Both possibilities apply here, and the data does not separate them.

IOE cases are electronically filed petitions routed by form type; the 30-day IOE median drives the headline this week. The 26 cases processed at MSC (the National Benefits Center, USCIS's Lee's Summit, MO facility) posted a median of 117 days, an 87-day gap that triggered the `uneven_centers` anomaly flag at a spread value of 104.68 days. For the small share of applicants whose cases are handled at MSC, the wait is meaningfully longer, by 87 days versus the IOE channel. MSC's 8-week slope is -6.2 days per week, but the R² of 0.15 is too weak to assert a reliable direction, so that apparent trend should be read cautiously. The two centers handle different caseloads, so the comparison reflects routing composition as much as processing pace.

Cases that received a Request for Evidence (RFE, USCIS's standard follow-up letter asking for missing documents) and responded are posting a median of 34 days this week. Cases with no RFE are taking 59 days, a ratio of 1.75x in favor of the RFE-response group. The stage durations data shows that cases at the 'Response To USCIS Request For Evidence Was Received' status have a raw median of 27 days, a 25th percentile (p25) of 10 days, and a 75th percentile (p75) of 64 days across 10,855 cases observed in the last 30 days, suggesting a distribution that skews toward relatively quick clearance once the response arrives. This week's pattern most likely reflects which cases happened to reach final-stage clearance this week rather than a structural advantage for RFE'd cases overall. Receiving an RFE is not a denial signal; most cases that receive one are ultimately approved.

An RFE response did not slow these cases down this week; the mix of cases reaching clearance, not a change in policy, appears to explain the pattern.