I-129F Final-Stage Wait Jumps 25 Days to 269, Highest in 12 Weeks
The week of September 21 brought a confirmed outlier reading, up from 155 days in mid-August, as an 8-week acceleration trend points toward further lengthening through October.
The I-129F final-stage wait reached 269 days the week of September 21, a 25-day jump from the prior week's 245 and the highest point in the 12-week window. An outlier anomaly flag fired at z=2.41, placing this week's reading more than 2.4 standard deviations above the 8-week trend line. The 12-week trailing average is 197 days, meaning this week's result sits 72 days above recent norms. An 8-week slope of +12.0 days per week, with an R² of 0.66, indicates a moderate-to-strong linear acceleration that, if it continues, would push the projected median to ~283 to 351 days by mid-October.
- The I-129F final-stage wait hit 269 days the week of September 21, up 25 days (+10.1%) from the prior week and 72 days above the 12-week trailing average of 197 days.
- An outlier anomaly flag fired at z=2.41, placing this week's reading more than 2.4 standard deviations above the 8-week trend line.
- The 8-week slope stands at +12.0 days per week (R²=0.66); if it persists, the forecast band reaches ~283 to 351 days by the week of October 19.
- Cases with a recorded RFE (Request for Evidence) response cleared in a median of just 15 days this week, versus 292 days for plain-processing cases, a roughly 20-to-1 inversion consistent with a batch-clearing effect.
- Six consecutive filing-month cohorts (April through September 2026) have zero approvals at scale; the cases clearing now were filed roughly 10 to 11 months ago.
A 25-day jump lands at the top of a 12-week climb
The median final-stage wait for I-129F petitions reached 269 days the week of September 21, up 25 days from last week's 245 and 114 days above the 12-week low of 155 days recorded the week of August 17. The 12-week trailing average is 197 days, placing this week's result well above the pace that held through most of the summer. The week-over-week move of +10.1 percent was accompanied by an outlier anomaly flag: the z-score of 2.41 against the 8-week trailing trend means this week's reading sits more than 2.4 standard deviations above that line.
The 8-week slope stands at +12.0 days per week with an R² of 0.66, indicating a moderate-to-strong linear acceleration. From the week of July 27 (158 days) through September 21 (269 days), the median has risen 111 days over eight weeks. This week also runs 17 days above the same week last year (252 days), though the prior-year sample was small at 45 cases, which limits how much weight that comparison can carry.
From 155 days in mid-August to 269 days in late September: the final-stage wait has risen 74% in roughly six weeks.
Two phases in one quarter: a summer dip, then a sharper reversal
The 12-week table reveals two distinct phases. In the first, medians fell from 197 days the week of July 6 to a low of 155 days the week of August 17, with the 25th percentile (p25) ranging from 152 to 162 days that week, suggesting a period of faster approvals. In the second, starting the week of August 24 (191 days), medians reversed course and climbed each subsequent week: 206, 218, 245, and now 269. The 75th percentile (p75) this week sits at 278 days, meaning even the fastest quarter of approved cases waited more than eight and a half months.
Weekly case volume varied substantially across this period, ranging from 174 cases the week of July 20 to 529 cases the week of September 14. The volume-timing relationship does not point to a simple explanation: the September 14 week saw both high volume and higher medians, which is not consistent with easy cases clearing first. The data brief does not tell us why the reversal began when it did; one possibility is a shift in the mix of cases reaching the approval stage, but a single quarter of data is not enough to confirm any mechanism.
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