I-129 Final-Stage Wait Falls to 12 Days, But 249,973 Cases Still Queue at 95 Days

Cases approved in the week of Aug 24 had a final-stage median wait of 12 days, down from 69 days in the same week of 2025. No anomaly flags fired, and the 12-week trailing average sits at 15 days, so this week represents the low end of a range that has been compressing steadily since late June. The 12-week table shows the progression: the median ran at 17 to 18 days from late June through mid-July (weeks W27 through W30), then fell to 14 days by late July and 12 days by mid-August. This metric captures only the final-stage wait for cases that cleared this specific week, not a forecast for applicants currently in the queue.

The 8-week regression slope of -0.9 days per week, with an R-squared of 0.85, indicates a steady and statistically coherent compression rather than a one-week shift. Over the full 8-week window, that slope translates to roughly 7 days of cumulative reduction. The pattern label is "noisy_stable," reflecting the fact that week-to-week variance exists: the 12-week range ran from 12 to 18 days even as the underlying direction remained downward. The 25th percentile (p25) this week sits at 8 days and the 75th percentile (p75) at 15 days, a narrower spread than earlier in the window.

If the current trend continues, the projected median reaches approximately 8 days by the week of Sep 21, with a forecast band of 8 to 9 days. The residual standard deviation is 1 day, so the band is tight relative to the level. This projection is a linear extrapolation and would not anticipate a policy shift, a volume increase from post-cap extension filings, or other H-1B calendar effects that may alter the pace in September and October.