Preliminary I-539 median hits 121 days as center imbalance widens to 181 days

This week's I-539 final-stage median of 121 days is a preliminary figure, drawn from 1,523 cases approved so far in the week of June 1. A typical week in this 12-week window has produced more than 2,100 approvals, so the sample is between 50% and 70% of normal volume. Even accounting for that uncertainty, the 14-day jump from last week's 108 days carries weight: the outlier-week-high flag fired at a z-score of 2.77 against the 8-week trend line, well above the 2.0 threshold. Against the 12-week trailing average of 94 days, the current reading is 27 days higher.

The 8-week slope of +4.2 days per week has an R² of 0.60, a moderate fit that confirms a real upward direction while leaving meaningful week-to-week scatter. Over eight weeks, that slope implies roughly 33 days of cumulative drift. The trend has been consistent since mid-April: the median has not fallen below 99 days since W17. Because the sample this week is preliminary, the final reading may revise by a few days in either direction, but the directional signal has been building for two months.

The uneven-centers flag fired with a spread value of 166.19 days, and the raw center-to-center range this week is 181 days. SRC (Texas Service Center) cleared cases at a median of 45 days on 764 cases, the fastest center by a wide margin. EAC (Vermont Service Center) sat at 226 days on 247 cases. WAC (California Service Center) was at 187 days on 421 cases, LIN (Nebraska Service Center) at 155 days on 51 cases, and YSC (Potomac Service Center) at 198 days on 40 cases. These are population comparisons among cases approved this week at each center, not routing choices that applicants control; case mix and intake volumes differ across centers.

SRC's 8-week slope of +3.7 days per week carries an R² of 0.85, the most statistically reliable upward trend among all centers. Its current median of 45 days is fast, but the trend line points consistently higher. EAC's slope of +2.4 days per week has an R² of only 0.42, so its trajectory is noisier. For applicants whose cases are pending at EAC or WAC, the medians above reflect only the population that cleared this week; cases still in queue may face conditions that differ. The imbalance may reflect intake redirection or staffing differences across centers, though the data does not identify a single cause.

The rfe_fast anomaly flag fired this week because RFE (Request for Evidence) response cases posted a median of just 18 days, compared with 95 days for cases that never received an RFE. That ratio of roughly 5 to 1 in favor of RFE-stamped cases inverts the typical pattern: cases that receive an RFE usually take 30 to 90 days longer than non-RFE cases, not shorter. The most plausible reading consistent with the data is a batch effect: a set of RFE responses filed around the same time cleared together this week, compressing that group's median. An RFE is not a denial signal, and most I-539 cases that receive one are still approved. A single week of rfe_fast data is too thin to indicate a structural shift in how USCIS handles RFE responses.

RFE response cases clearing in 18 days this week most likely reflects a batch of responses filed together, not a new pattern in how USCIS reviews them.